[The Editors' Verdict] More Concerned Because China Is a "Scared Bully"

Differences Over Pelosi's Tour in the US
Aftermath Left to Taiwan and Allies
China's 'Taiwan Unification Rehearsal'
US Congress Taiwan Policy Act Vote Postponed
Risk of Accidental Clashes Increasing

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kang Hee-jong] "Pelosi is gone, but Taiwan remains." This is how the British current affairs weekly The Economist evaluated the tumultuous visit of Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, to Taiwan.

Speaker Pelosi made front-page headlines in major newspapers during her Asia tour. She showcased her presence by meeting sequentially with heads of state and parliamentary leaders of key countries. She further emphasized her tough stance on China and achieved her intended goals. However, the real problem begins now. The aftermath has been left entirely to Taiwan and its neighboring countries. South Korea, which has always been caught in the middle between the U.S. and China like a sandwich, now faces a situation where it must make policy decisions considering the Taiwan Strait crisis as a constant factor.

After returning to the U.S., Speaker Pelosi appeared on a broadcast and said of Chinese President Xi Jinping, "He acts like a scared bully." Regarding the military provocations China carried out after her visit, she dismissed them as "the usual things they do." This was despite ballistic missiles fired by China flying over Taiwan's airspace and landing within Japan's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), and Chinese fighter jets crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait as if it were their own territory.

But does Taiwan share the same view? It seems not at all.

Taiwanese military experts regard China's recent military exercises as a "rehearsal for Taiwan unification." China divided the area around Taiwan into six zones and conducted a full encirclement. It was as if to demonstrate how they would proceed if they were to invade Taiwan by force. One can imagine the fear of war that the Taiwanese people must have felt.

So, does the U.S. truly have the confidence to never abandon Taiwan, the "steadfast friend," as Speaker Pelosi claimed? Doubts still remain.

The U.S. Senate continues to delay voting on the Taiwan Policy Act. American politicians are wary of the backlash this law might provoke. The bill designates Taiwan as a non-NATO ally and includes $4.5 billion (approximately 5.9 trillion won) in support over the next four years. Essentially, it recognizes Taiwan as an independent country. Experts predict that if this bill passes, China's backlash will be far more intense than it was over Pelosi's visit.

Opinions within the U.S. are divided over the outcomes of Pelosi's Taiwan visit. Some evaluate that it solidified America's commitment to Taiwan's security in case of emergency, while others argue it complicated the U.S.'s China strategy even further.

Bloomberg News assessed, "Pelosi's reckless visit to Taiwan is undermining President Joe Biden's China containment strategy." Initially, President Biden was not favorable toward Pelosi's Taiwan visit. Despite the White House's negative atmosphere, Pelosi went ahead with the visit, which weakened Biden's image.

Moreover, her visit was enough to put allied countries in a difficult position. Although various interpretations exist, the fact that President Yoon Suk-yeol did not meet Pelosi in person during her visit to Korea but spoke with her by phone is widely analyzed as a measure to prevent South Korea from becoming deeply entangled in the U.S.-China conflict.

If, as Pelosi said, President Xi is currently in a state of fear, that is an even bigger problem. A scared dog barks louder and may even bite guests who come to the house. Historically, many wars that shaped the world began as accidental clashes between two frightened nations. The 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, which nearly led to war, was no different.