Yoon Returning from Vacation... Is There a Surprise Card Without Personnel Reshuffle?

Pardon Card, Preparation for New Government's First Housing Supply Measures... First Message on Commute on the 8th Also in Focus

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Baek Kyunghwan] President Yoon Seok-yeol is returning after his first summer vacation. With approval ratings having dropped to 24%, attention is focused on what turnaround card President Yoon will present upon his return. He is expected to deliver a new national administration message through the August 15 Liberation Day and continue his efforts on stabilizing prices for the Chuseok holiday and real estate supply measures. Some speculate that a drastic personnel reshuffle might still be possible.

According to the Presidential Office, President Yoon concentrated on planning the political situation during his vacation from the 1st to the 5th. Although there were discussions about spending 2 to 3 days in the provinces, he ultimately stayed at home and deliberated with his aides on the direction of government administration for the second half of the year. The vacation was not comfortable. With the controversy over the admission of his 5-year-old child to elementary school and allegations regarding the construction contract for First Lady Kim Geon-hee’s residence, his approval ratings fell once again.

The biggest point of interest is President Yoon’s first message after his return. Given the fallout from the 'internal criticism' text scandal, the absence of doorstepping (Q&A on the way to work), and the plummeting approval ratings, all eyes are on President Yoon’s expression and message on his way to work.

In political circles, a 'pardon' is expected as a turnaround card. The individuals mentioned as potential pardon recipients include former President Lee Myung-bak, Samsung Electronics Vice Chairman Lee Jae-yong, Lotte Chairman Shin Dong-bin, and former Gyeongnam Governor Kim Kyung-soo. Analysts suggest that pardoning business leaders for economic revitalization would not be problematic. Previously, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo also stated, "I will recommend a special pardon for Samsung Electronics Vice Chairman Lee Jae-yong and Lotte Group Chairman Shin Dong-bin to the President."

However, pardoning politicians is a different matter. In a situation where approval ratings have sharply declined, it could potentially cause further drops. In the case of former Governor Kim, there are many opinions that "the main culprit of state manipulation should not be given a pardon," which inevitably places a burden on President Yoon.

In preparation for the earlier-than-usual Chuseok holiday, the government will announce measures to stabilize livelihoods. The focus of these measures is expected to be on stabilizing prices of Chuseok seasonal goods and living expenses. Earlier, President Yoon urged Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Choo Kyung-ho, saying, "This year’s Chuseok is earlier than usual, and due to recent monsoon rains and heatwaves, there are concerns about price instability for seasonal goods. Please prepare Chuseok livelihood stabilization measures with relevant ministries and proactively work to stabilize prices and livelihoods." Last week, Choi Sang-mok, the Presidential Office’s Chief Economic Secretary, also said, "Chuseok is unusually early. We plan to discuss Chuseok livelihood stabilization measures focusing on managing prices of seasonal goods at the upcoming Emergency Economic and Livelihood Meeting."

The first housing supply plan of the new government is also being prepared. The core plan is to secure more than 2.5 million housing units during the term, including those planned by the previous administration, and to concentrate supply in the high-demand metropolitan area. This is expected to include raising floor area ratios in station areas to allow high-density development and expanding the private sector’s role in redevelopment and reconstruction projects.

However, a personnel reshuffle is unlikely. Since the new government has been in office for less than three months, changing aides would make it difficult not only to push policies forward but also to defend against political attacks. There are also concerns that a reshuffle might not be the drastic remedy needed to raise approval ratings.