Yomiuri: "Kishida Likely to Replace Abe's Brother Kishi as Defense Minister in Cabinet Reshuffle on the 10th"

[Asia Economy Reporter Kwon Jae-hee] Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is expected to replace Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi, the younger brother of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, during the cabinet reshuffle scheduled for the 10th, according to a major Japanese media outlet on the 6th.

On the same day, Japan's largest daily newspaper, Yomiuri Shimbun, reported, "Prime Minister Kishida has decided to carry out a cabinet reshuffle and Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) executive personnel changes on the 10th," adding, "In the reshuffle, Defense Minister Kishi is expected to be replaced considering his health condition."

Defense Minister Kishi is the younger brother of former Prime Minister Abe, who was shot and killed during a campaign rally for the House of Councillors election on the 8th of last month. However, he was adopted into the Kishi family on his maternal side, so his surname differs from Abe's.

According to Japanese media, Genjiro Kaneko, Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, and Satoshi Ninoyu, Chairman of the National Public Safety Commission, who did not run in the recent House of Councillors election and are currently civilians after their parliamentary terms ended, are also expected to be replaced in this reshuffle.

Key cabinet members such as Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno and Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi are likely to remain in their positions.

Among party executives, Deputy President Taro Aso and Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi are also expected to retain their posts.

As the leader of the LDP's fourth-largest faction, the 'Kishida faction,' Prime Minister Kishida needs the support of Deputy President Aso and Secretary-General Motegi, who lead the second-largest (Motegi faction) and third-largest (Aso faction) factions respectively, to ensure stable governance.

The biggest point of interest in this personnel change is how Prime Minister Kishida will treat the LDP's largest faction, the 'Abe faction.'

Following the sudden death of former Prime Minister Abe, who led the faction, the Abe faction has weakened in cohesion and is facing a crisis as multiple affiliated lawmakers have been revealed to have connections with the Unification Church (Family Federation for World Peace and Unification, hereafter Family Federation).

Defense Minister Kishi, who is expected to be replaced, is also a member of the Abe faction and recently admitted to receiving support from the Family Federation during the election.

Similarly, Shinsuke Suematsu, Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology and also a member of the Abe faction, acknowledged that a Family Federation affiliate had purchased tickets for his political fundraising parties in the past.

After Tetsuya Yamagami, who assassinated former Prime Minister Abe, stated his motive was that "my mother donated a large sum to the Family Federation, which ruined our family," public attention in Japan has focused on the relationship between the Family Federation and politics, especially the LDP.

Considering this situation, there is speculation that Prime Minister Kishida will not appoint new ministers from the Abe faction in this reshuffle.

The Mainichi Shimbun reported, "Since many lawmakers in the Abe faction are mentioned in relation to the Family Federation and related organizations, there is speculation within the LDP that 'there might not be new appointments from the Abe faction.'"

Prime Minister Kishida originally planned a cabinet reshuffle and party personnel changes in early next month, but due to the controversy over the Family Federation and the state funeral of former Prime Minister Abe, as well as the spread of COVID-19 causing a drop in approval ratings, he reportedly advanced the timing of the personnel changes to overcome the political situation.

A Kyodo News telephone poll conducted nationwide among voters aged 18 and over from the 30th to 31st of last month showed that the approval rating for the Kishida Cabinet was 51.0%, a drop of 12.2 percentage points compared to the survey conducted on the 11th and 12th of the same month. This was the lowest since the cabinet's launch in October last year according to Kyodo News polling standards.

The Asahi Shimbun reported on the same day that the reason for the significant advancement of the cabinet reshuffle and party personnel changes is widely interpreted as an attempt to overcome the difficult situation surrounding the administration, including the relationship between the Family Federation and politics.

For this reason, there is also speculation that this reshuffle will be large-scale.

A mid-ranking LDP lawmaker told Mainichi, "If the personnel changes are minor, the intention to deliberately create a 'surprise' to boost the administration will be diluted."

Meanwhile, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun expects that through the early personnel changes, Prime Minister Kishida will seek to promote economic policies based on his 'new capitalism' (a virtuous cycle of growth and distribution) and COVID-19 countermeasures.