[US Pelosi's Visit to Taiwan] Escalating US-China Distrust "Greatest Crisis Since the Korean War"

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy New York=Special Correspondent Joselgina, Reporter Kim Hyunjung] "The visit of the U.S. congressional delegation to Taiwan is in accordance with America's firm commitment to support Taiwan's democracy." (Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives)

"It is a solemn deterrence against the recent expansion of problematic U.S. actions regarding the Taiwan issue and a serious warning to the Taiwan military seeking independence." (People's Liberation Army (PLA) of China)

The sudden visit to Taiwan by Nancy Pelosi, the third-ranking U.S. power figure and a 'China hawk,' is widely analyzed as a 'powder keg' that will escalate the already heightened U.S.-China conflict to a new level. This is an unavoidable fight for both U.S. President Joe Biden, who is facing the upcoming November midterm elections, and Chinese President Xi Jinping, who has announced his intention to seek a third term. Behind the conflict lie Taiwan's strategic importance and the growing mutual distrust between the U.S. and China.

◇China's Encirclement Fire on Taiwan and Economic Retaliation

China announced a large-scale military demonstration in the form of encirclement fire immediately after Pelosi's arrival in Taiwan on the night of the 2nd. This is part of the 'strong military response' that China had previously warned about. Lieutenant Colonel Sui, spokesperson for the Eastern Theater Command of the People's Liberation Army responsible for Taiwan, stated that from the 4th, joint naval and air exercises and live-fire drills will be conducted in the northern, southwestern, and southeastern maritime and airspace areas around Taiwan.

Additionally, the Chinese government summoned U.S. Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns late at night to protest, saying, "This seriously undermines the political foundation of China-U.S. relations and seriously violates China's sovereignty and territorial integrity," and added, "The nature of this act is extremely malicious and the consequences are very severe. We will resolutely counterattack."

Economic retaliation has also begun. Prior to Pelosi's arrival, China banned the import of over 100 Taiwanese food products, and on the 3rd, announced a suspension of imports of Taiwanese citrus fruits and fishery products. The export of natural sand used in construction materials was also temporarily halted. Major foreign media outlets predict that these retaliatory measures are likely to expand even after Pelosi's departure. China is Taiwan's largest trading partner.

Currently, China perceives Pelosi's visit to Taiwan as a 'provocation' that maximizes distrust toward the U.S. This contrasts with the recent days in which the Biden administration has distanced itself by describing Pelosi's actions as being at the 'congressional level.' John Kirby, White House National Security Council (NSC) Coordinator for Strategic Communications, told reporters on the 2nd, "This visit did not infringe on China's sovereignty," and "It is 100% consistent with the U.S. 'One China' policy." Major foreign media note that there is a perceptual gap between the strictly separated powers in the U.S. and the one-party system of the Chinese Communist Party, analyzing that "China interprets this as an effort, under President Biden's tacit approval, to empower Taiwan independence forces."

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

◇Deepened Distrust: "The Greatest Crisis Since the Korean War"

Experts unanimously agree that even if this visit does not immediately lead to full-scale military confrontation between the U.S. and China, it will inevitably cause greater repercussions in the future. The deepening strategic distrust between the U.S. and China behind the conflict also fuels this. Hong Kong's Ming Pao evaluated on the 3rd, "By deliberately ignoring China's warnings and visiting Taiwan, Pelosi has brought the U.S. and China to the greatest crisis since the Korean War."

Western countries, including the U.S., view China's ambitions toward Taiwan as becoming increasingly blatant following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Some analysts suggest that President Xi, who has expressed a stance of not ruling out military unification with Taiwan under the banner of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, is considering Taiwan unification as a representative achievement after securing a third term.

The Guardian, citing experts, stated, "This in itself will not trigger a war, but the problem will accelerate," and noted, "The U.S. maintaining strategic ambiguity on the 'One China' policy may be the most important way to preserve Taiwan's autonomy." Bonnie Glaser, Director of the Asia Program at the German Marshall Fund, said, "Pelosi's visit was premature. The U.S. will realize that restoring relations with China has become very difficult," and predicted, "China has lost trust in the U.S. 'One China' commitment and will take a tougher stance in the future to prevent a bigger crisis."

The Washington Post (WP), in an op-ed titled 'The Real Crisis Around Taiwan Begins After Pelosi Leaves,' emphasized that "the burden of this visit will ultimately fall back on Taiwan," and stressed the need for international efforts to strengthen Taiwan militarily, economically, and diplomatically.

The U.S.-China conflict was also confirmed at the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference held on the 2nd at the United Nations (UN) headquarters in New York. Fu Cong, Director-General of the Department of Arms Control at the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, publicly pressured the U.S. by stating in his general debate speech, "We strongly oppose any attempt to replicate NATO's nuclear sharing model in the Asia-Pacific region." NATO-style nuclear sharing is a military strategy that strengthens deterrence by deploying U.S. nuclear weapons on allied territory for joint operation. For China, this is interpreted as an attempt to check the possibility of U.S. nuclear weapons deployment in neighboring countries.