[Good Morning Stock Market] Weak Outlook Amid Economic Indicator Caution

On the 28th, the KOSPI index opened at 2437.57, up 0.91% (22.04 points) from the previous trading day, as dealers were working in the Hana Bank dealing room in Euljiro, Seoul. The won-dollar exchange rate started at 1306 won, down 7.3 won. Photo by Moon Honam munonam@

[Asia Economy Reporter Junho Hwang] On the 1st (local time), the U.S. stock market showed a pause amid weak major economic indicators, caution ahead of the employment report release, and profit-taking after three consecutive days of gains. In this context, it is forecasted that the Korean stock market will also start weak.

Sangyoung Seo, a researcher at Mirae Asset Securities, stated on the 2nd, "The U.S. stock market initially opened lower due to profit-taking following recent gains, but showed a turnaround to rise as the dollar weakened amid the impact of weak economic indicators." However, he added, "As time passed, concerns over economic slowdown in the U.S. and China intensified, causing international oil prices to plunge. Amid the U.S.-China tensions surrounding Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, the market turned lower again. Afterwards, individual companies and sector-specific factors led to fluctuations around the flat line, closing slightly down." Based on this trend, he predicted, "The Korean stock market is expected to start down about 0.3%. The direction will be determined by foreign investors' supply and demand, who had bought shares the previous day."

Ji-young Han, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, also said, "With lingering caution over macroeconomic indicators and profit-taking following stock price rises, a pause in the market is expected." Considering the high diplomatic tension between the U.S. and China over the Taiwan independence issue and the possibility of U.S. House Speaker Pelosi visiting Taiwan on the 2nd or 3rd, political noise related to U.S.-China friction is expected to cause volatility across Asian markets during the day.

He further forecasted, "Based on last month's export data showing improved performance in some key items such as automobiles (+25.3%) and secondary batteries (+11.8%), and depending on the earnings results of major companies like Kakao Pay, Korea Financial Group, and KG Inicis, which are scheduled to be announced on the day, a differentiated market trend among stocks is expected."