Ukrainian Forces Launch Counterattack in Southern Kherson... War Enters New Phase

Ukraine "Recapture Kherson by September"
Russia Rushes Kherson Annexation Referendum

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] As the Ukrainian military launches a large-scale counteroffensive against the southern Kherson region occupied by Russia, analyses suggest that the Ukraine war may reach a turning point. Since Kherson was the first region occupied by Russia after the outbreak of the war and the area where Russia declared direct annexation as its territory, if Ukraine recaptures Kherson, it is expected to deal a significant blow to the Russian forces. However, if the counteroffensive fails, there is also a risk that Ukraine may have to accept Russia's ceasefire demands due to reduced Western support and weakened military strength.

According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on the 31st (local time), Ukrainian forces have advanced to areas near Kherson city, the capital of Kherson Oblast, and it is reported that Russian forces have suffered numerous casualties. WSJ reported that due to the large-scale Ukrainian counteroffensive, Russia has moved a significant portion of its troops stationed in the Donbas region to the Kherson area.

The Ukrainian military has successfully destroyed key supply routes in Kherson using the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) provided by the United States, and continues to engage in battles by isolating Russian troops stationed in Kherson. According to the British newspaper The Guardian, Ukraine plans to launch a large-scale counteroffensive by September to fully recapture Kherson Oblast.

In particular, since Kherson is the first major city occupied by Russia after the outbreak of the war and a region where Russia is preparing for direct annexation as its territory, it is expected that the morale of Russian forces will be greatly undermined if Ukrainian forces recapture Kherson. The U.S. Institute for the Study of War (ISW) stated in a report on the same day, "Despite the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson, Russia continues to prepare for a referendum for annexation," adding, "Ukrainian forces and resistance groups within Kherson are destroying key Russian military railroads to cut off supply routes."

Kherson is a crucial strategic point connecting the Crimean Peninsula, forcibly annexed by Russia in 2014, and the currently occupied Donbas region. Therefore, there is analysis that Ukrainian military successes here could change the direction of the war. Elliott Cohen, a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said, "Recapturing Kherson, which Russia first occupied in early March after the outbreak of the war, is very important both strategically and psychologically," adding, "It will lower Russian military morale even more than Ukraine’s sinking of the Russian Black Sea Fleet flagship Moskva or the recapture of Snake Island in June."

However, concerns remain about the aftermath if the counteroffensive fails. WSJ forecasted, "If the recapture of Kherson fails or falters, support from some Western countries may weaken," and "European countries, which are facing worsening economic crises due to reduced Russian natural gas supplies, may more strongly demand a swift ceasefire from Ukraine."