President Yoon's approval rating seemed to hit rock bottom... Why did it collapse again?

NBS That Had Successfully Rebounded
Gallup's 30% Approval Rating Also Collapsed
Possibility of Economic Deterioration Including Giant Step
Approval Ratings That Had Been Sideways Since Mid-July Confirmed to Be Declining

President Yoon Suk-yeol visited the Sinchon Police Substation in Seodaemun-gu, Seoul, on the morning of the 29th and is seen conversing with Lee Seon-rae, Chief of Seodaemun Police Station. [Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] A public opinion poll has revealed that President Yoon Seok-yeol's approval rating for his administration has fallen below the psychological threshold of the 30% range. Even as recently as mid-last week, some analyses suggested that the decline in President Yoon's approval rating had halted. Now that the approval rating, commonly considered the benchmark for lame-duck status, has dropped below 30%, the question arises whether President Yoon can maintain at least the minimal momentum necessary for governance.

According to a regular public opinion poll released on the 29th by Gallup (conducted via telephone interviews with over 1,000 adults aged 18 and older nationwide from the 26th to the 28th), 28% of respondents said President Yoon is performing well in his duties, while 62% said he is performing poorly. Compared to last week's survey, the positive rating dropped by 4 percentage points, and the negative rating rose by 2 percentage points.

President Yoon's approval rating has steadily declined since reaching 53% in the second week of June. Although it was 32% in the second week of July and remained at 32% last week?leading some to believe the decline had paused?the downward trend has resumed.

Regionally, negative evaluations outnumbered positive ones in all areas nationwide. Even in Daegu and Gyeongbuk, considered the core support base of the current ruling party, 47% said the president is performing poorly, while 40% said he is performing well. By age group, all groups under 60 expressed higher negative evaluations, whereas only those aged 70 and above showed a higher positive evaluation at 48%, compared to 34% negative.

Based on Gallup's poll, the momentum for President Yoon's administration, which has been in office for less than 100 days, clearly shows warning signs. However, other polls have presented contrasting analyses.

According to the National Barometer Survey (NBS) conducted by Embrain Public, K-stat Research, Korea Research, and Hankook Research (surveying 1,006 adults nationwide from the 25th to the 27th), the decline in President Yoon's approval rating appears to have paused. The NBS showed a 34% positive rating and a 54% negative rating. Compared to two weeks prior, both positive and negative ratings increased by 1 percentage point each. Although negative ratings rose, positive ratings also showed an upward trend, suggesting the rating may have bottomed out.

Both Gallup and NBS surveys are notable for not being conducted in partnership with specific media outlets, thus avoiding the house effect (where respondents' attitudes vary depending on the media outlet conducting the poll), and for being conducted via telephone interviews, which are considered more credible than automated response systems (ARS). While NBS gave the impression that President Yoon's approval rating had bottomed out, Gallup predicted a continued decline, highlighting a difference between the two.

Why did the directions of the polls differ?

Regarding the difference, Kim Bong-shin, CEO of Metavoice, explained, "The NBS survey was conducted between the 25th and 27th, while Gallup's was from the 26th to the 28th. During this period, factors such as the Federal Reserve's giant step policy in the U.S. may have been reflected in Gallup's results." He added, "Gallup likely better captured signals of growing economic anxiety, and the ruling party's internal power struggles may have also influenced the results."

Another notable point about Gallup's poll is that after stabilizing at 32% in the second and third weeks of July, the approval rating dropped by 4 percentage points to 28% in the fourth week. Kim said, "The delayed drop in approval rating indicates a lack of momentum for a rebound," diagnosing that "negative factors are accumulating, especially considering the economic situation." He also described the declining support for the People Power Party as a "dangerous signal."

Criticism has also emerged that President Yoon's previously effective campaign strategy of abolishing the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family no longer works. On the 25th, President Yoon ordered the preparation of a roadmap for abolishing the ministry during a briefing. The abolition of the ministry was a key card used to reverse declining approval ratings during his presidential campaign. However, this time, the card failed to produce the desired effect. Kim noted, "The weight of the president's messages during the campaign and after taking office differs from the public's perspective. While there was hope during the campaign, now the public expects realism, and the expectations and efficacy regarding the ministry's abolition may not be high."

Moreover, public reaction grew colder after President Yoon announced plans to reform the education system, including the introduction of elementary school admission at age five, during the Ministry of Education briefing. This came amid growing opposition to a series of policies such as the establishment of the Personnel Intelligence Unit in the Ministry of Justice and the Police Bureau in the Ministry of the Interior and Safety. Parents and teachers have already voiced opposition to the education reform plan.

For detailed information on the survey methodology and results, please refer to the website of the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission.