Research Team at National Institute for Mathematical Sciences Divided on Outlook
120,000 Cases in 2 Weeks, 260,000 if Spread... Some Predict Decline After 3 Weeks
On the 26th, as 99,327 new COVID-19 cases were reported, approaching 100,000 for the first time in three months, citizens visiting the screening clinic set up at Mapo-gu Public Health Center in Seoul were waiting to get tested. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@
[Asia Economy Reporter Jo In-kyung] Amid the ongoing resurgence of COVID-19, it is projected that the number of confirmed cases will rise from around 120,000 per day to approximately 260,000 within two weeks.
According to the report "COVID-19 Epidemic Forecast Analyzed by Mathematical Modeling" released on the 28th by the National Institute for Mathematical Sciences, the Mathematical Sciences Department and the Biomathematics Lab at Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology (UNIST), led by Professor Lee Chang-hyung, estimated that if the infection reproduction number (1.6078) remains steady over the past two weeks, the number of new confirmed cases, which was 100,285 the previous day, will increase to 126,633 by August 3, one week later.
The infection reproduction number quantifies how many people one infected person transmits the virus to; a value above 1 indicates the epidemic is spreading, while below 1 means it is being suppressed. The index fell to 0.74 in the first week of June but has gradually risen since, recording above 1 for four consecutive weeks: 1.05 in week 2, 1.40 in week 3, 1.58 in week 4, and 1.54 in week 5.
According to this projection, by August 10, another week later, new confirmed cases will increase to 189,938.
The research team also projected that if the infection reproduction number decreases to 1.2, new confirmed cases will slightly increase to 109,951 on August 3 and 126,398 on August 10. Conversely, if the reproduction number rises to 2.0, cases could surge to 143,793 on August 3 and 267,394 on August 10.
Daily New Confirmed Cases Prediction by the Mathematical Biology Lab, Department of Mathematical Sciences, UNIST
The number of new confirmed cases had been doubling weekly since early this month but began to ease from late last week. On the 28th, the figure was 88,384, which is 1.24 times the 71,150 cases reported a week earlier on the 21st.
Public health experts believe that the epidemic trend over the next one to two weeks, coinciding with the peak vacation season, will determine the scale of this summer’s outbreak.
In this report, Professor Shim Eun-ha’s research team from Soongsil University’s Department of Mathematics predicted that new confirmed cases will rise to 114,308 by August 8 and then increase moderately to 120,142 by August 10.
Prediction of Daily New Confirmed Cases Based on Infection Transmission Rate by Professor Jeong Eun-ok's Team at Konkuk University
Professor Jung Eun-ok’s research team at Konkuk University forecasted that if the current transmission rate persists, new confirmed cases will increase to 187,042 in two weeks and 315,163 in four weeks.
Considering the dominant variant, if the transmission rate increases by 1.1 times the current rate, new confirmed cases could surge to 229,315 in two weeks and reach a maximum of 409,672 in four weeks. At that time, the number of severe COVID-19 patients is expected to approach 700, and daily deaths could near 150.
On the other hand, Kwon Oh-gyu, head of the Public Data Analysis Research Team at the National Institute for Mathematical Sciences, analyzed mobility data at the eup, myeon, and dong levels collected from mobile phone location data and cumulative confirmed cases by city and province from July 12 to 26. He predicted that new confirmed cases will begin to decline three weeks from now. The number of new cases is expected to rise gradually, then stabilize between 120,000 and 140,000 before turning downward.
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