Russia, Sudan Naval Base Negotiations Fail... Indian Ocean Expansion Thwarted

[Image source=AFP·Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] Russia's plan to build a naval base in Sudan, Africa, aimed at expanding into the Indian Ocean, has reportedly been virtually abandoned. This is analyzed to be due to a growing cautious stance within the Sudanese military regarding relations with Russia, which has been under Western sanctions since the invasion of Ukraine.

On the 15th (local time), Foreign Policy (FP), a U.S. foreign security magazine, cited multiple U.S. intelligence officials and reported that the construction of the Russian naval base, agreed to be built at Port Sudan, Sudan's largest trading port, has effectively fallen through, and the likelihood of the agreement being implemented is low. If constructed, the naval base was expected to become Russia's first overseas base in Africa.

Previously, Russia and Sudan had been negotiating related matters since 2017. At that time, Sudan's then-ruler President Omar al-Bashir agreed with Russia on building the naval base, but the project was delayed after he was ousted by a military coup in 2019, ending his 30-year rule. The project became uncertain again after a second coup in October last year led to another regime change.

In particular, it is reported that controversy over relations with Russia has grown even within the newly ruling Sudanese military. Currently, within the Sudanese military, General Abdel Fattah Burhan, the top leader, and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, commander of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and considered the second-in-command, reportedly showed significant differences in opinion regarding the construction of the Russian naval base, according to FP.

According to FP, unlike the pro-Russian Dagalo, General Burhan is said to not want to worsen relations with the West and key regional allies. FP quoted sources saying, "Sudan is very hesitant to grant Russia access to the port," and "the possibility of negotiations over this port in the near future is low, and Russia is likely to seek other options."

Accordingly, the construction of the naval base at Port Sudan, which was expected to serve as Russia's foothold in the Indian Ocean, is considered effectively canceled. Port Sudan is a strategic key point located along the Red Sea coast, a major shipping route through which 30% of the world's container volume passes.

Joseph Siegle, an expert at the U.S. Africa Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS), said, "Russia has expanded its influence in Africa more than any other external actor over the past several years," adding, "However, I think the Sudanese military has realized that Russia has little to offer in terms of investment or funding."