Kishida Japanese Prime Minister Cabinet Reshuffle Possibly Late Next Month... Former Prime Minister Suga Considered for Deputy Prime Minister

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida [Photo by AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Byung-hee] Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is expected to carry out a cabinet reshuffle and personnel changes within the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) as early as late next month, according to Japanese media outlets such as Yomiuri Shimbun and Asahi Shimbun on the 12th. There are forecasts that former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga will be appointed Deputy Prime Minister, a position usually held concurrently with the Minister of Finance.

Prime Minister Kishida gained strong momentum necessary for future political management with the LDP's landslide victory in the House of Councillors election on the 10th. While the conservative base's consolidation was significantly influenced by the unexpected shooting death of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe two days before the election, there are expectations that Kishida will distance himself from the influence of the LDP's largest faction, the 'Seiwakai (Abe faction),' and demonstrate his own political colors. In this context, with expectations that Kishida will keep distance from the Abe faction, the possibility of appointing former Prime Minister Suga as Deputy Prime Minister has been raised.

An official from the economic ministry explained to Yomiuri that the reason for the rising plan to appoint former Prime Minister Suga as Deputy Prime Minister is that "he can supplement the reform capabilities and breakthrough power that the Kishida Cabinet tends to lack."

Although Suga's term as prime minister was short, he is a political heavyweight who succeeded Abe, is not affiliated with any faction within the LDP, and holds significant influence among non-factional lawmakers. He also maintains close relations with the coalition partner Komeito and the right-wing opposition party Japan Innovation Party.

Asahi reported that following the death of former Prime Minister Abe, who had served as a link between these two parties and the LDP, there are remarks around former Prime Minister Suga that "now only Suga can coordinate between the two parties." Asahi added that there are speculations that Kishida might treat Suga and his surrounding lawmakers favorably in future cabinet reshuffles and personnel appointments.

Attention is focused on whether Prime Minister Kishida will replace a large number of members belonging to the LDP's largest faction, led by former Prime Minister Abe, through the cabinet reshuffle and LDP personnel changes.

In this reshuffle, it is widely expected that Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno and Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi, who are key figures in the cabinet, will remain in their posts. On the other hand, attention is focused on the positions of Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi, Abe's younger brother, and Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Koichi Hagiuda, a close aide of Abe. In the LDP personnel changes, the position of Sanae Takaichi, Chairperson of the Policy Research Council who voiced Abe's opinions, is also being watched.

Leading the moderate faction 'Kochikai' (Kishida faction), Prime Minister Kishida has been evaluated as having policy distances from the hardline conservative Abe faction.

Mainichi Shimbun reported, "Former Prime Minister Abe demanded the (Kishida) Prime Minister, who emphasizes distribution, to succeed 'Abenomics,' which focuses on growth," and added, "Even in the fiscal (soundness) reconstruction line emphasized by (Kishida), (Abe) asserted the expansion of defense spending and acted as a check."

Looking at the current faction structure within the LDP, the Abe faction has 93 members (members of the Diet), accounting for one-quarter of the total; second is the 'Motegi faction' led by LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi with 54 members; third is the Aso faction led by LDP Vice President Taro Aso with 49 members. The Kishida faction ranks fourth with 44 members.

With the sudden death of former Prime Minister Abe expected to reduce the influence of the Abe faction, there are also predictions that Prime Minister Kishida will strengthen ties with the second and third largest factions.

From the perspective of the Kishida faction, the Motegi and Aso factions are closer in policy orientation than the Abe faction, and both factions generally supported Kishida in the LDP presidential election last September.

An LDP official told Mainichi that while they will monitor the Abe faction's movements, "the three factions (Kishida faction, Motegi faction, and Aso faction) will lead the administration's operation going forward."

The Abe faction lacks a suitable successor to former Prime Minister Abe, who reigned as an 'absolute leader.' According to Asahi, before his death, Abe named former LDP Policy Research Council Chair Hakubun Shimomura, Chief Cabinet Secretary Matsuno, and Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Hagiuda as candidates for the next leader of the Abe faction, but none are evaluated as Abe's replacement. For this reason, Japanese media report that former Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori, who retired from politics nearly ten years ago, is being mentioned as a rallying point for the Abe faction.