COVID-19 BA.5 Resurgence in the US: Actual Cases Seven Times Official Count

On the 12th (local time), citizens are waiting to get tested for COVID-19 at a COVID-19 testing site in New York, USA. [Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy New York=Special Correspondent Joselgina] In the United States, where the Omicron subvariant 'BA.5' has become the dominant strain, it is estimated that the actual number of new COVID-19 cases is seven times higher than the official count.

On the 11th (local time), CNN cited the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington School of Medicine to report this estimate for the first week of July. The officially reported average daily new COVID-19 cases in the U.S. over the past two weeks was about 107,000. However, the actual number is estimated to be as high as 749,000.

This level is close to the massive spread of COVID-19 caused by the Omicron variant last winter. At that time, the highest average daily number of cases was in the 800,000 range.

Michael Mina, Chief Scientific Officer (CSO) of telemedicine company eMed, said the proportion of officially reported cases is currently at an all-time low, explaining that this is due to a sharp increase in the use of home self-test kits to determine COVID-19 infection, which are not captured in official counts.

CNN reported, "As the most contagious COVID-19 variant to date spreads, the official COVID-19 case numbers seriously underestimate the actual number of infections," adding that "this creates a deadly blind spot in the United States."

According to the New York Times (NYT), as of the 10th, the 7-day average of new COVID-19 cases in the U.S. was about 107,500, a 5% increase from two weeks ago. Meanwhile, hospitalizations surged by 18% to about 37,400 during the same period. The positivity rate among total tests recently reached 17.9%, the third highest level during the pandemic. The only times the positivity rate was higher were during the early pandemic (21.1%) and the Omicron surge (29.2%).

In particular, BA.5 has mutation traits that evade antibodies formed by vaccination or natural infection, so even those who have been vaccinated or previously infected with COVID-19 are at high risk of reinfection. Eric Topol, director of the Scripps Research Institute, predicted, "The number of confirmed cases will increase, and more hospitalizations will follow."