[COVID-19 Resurgence] Faster-Than-Expected Spread ... 200,000 Cases Per Day Possible Next Month

Daily New Confirmed Cases More Than Double in a Week... Over 20,000 for Two Consecutive Weekend Days
Government Announces Re-epidemic Measures Including Maintaining Isolation Requirement for Confirmed Cases on the 13th

On the 8th, 19,323 new COVID-19 cases were reported, marking a 2.03-fold increase compared to the previous week. Citizens visiting the screening clinic set up at Mapo-gu Public Health Center in Seoul are waiting to get tested. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

As COVID-19 enters a resurgence phase, the number of new daily cases reached the 20,000 range even over the weekend. At this pace, there are concerns that daily cases could reach the 100,000 range as early as the end of this month. 'COVID-19 Strikes Again'

According to the Central Disease Control Headquarters (CDCH), as of midnight on the 10th, the number of new COVID-19 cases increased by 20,410, bringing the cumulative total to 18,511,845. This is 124 more than the 20,286 cases reported on the 9th, when cases first reached the 20,000 range in 45 days.

Unlike the usual trend where the number of tests and confirmed cases decrease on weekends, the number of cases on this weekend was higher than on weekdays. Compared to a week earlier on the 3rd (10,048 cases), the number more than doubled.

Over the past week, the daily number of new cases has shown a 'doubling' phenomenon, increasing more than twice compared to the previous week. Until the 27th of last month, the daily cases hit a low of 3,423, but have gradually increased since then, reaching the high 10,000s daily from the 5th to the 8th of this month, and surpassing 20,000 on the 9th for the first time in 45 days. The weekly average daily cases also rose from 7,054 during June 19?25 to 8,550 during June 26?July 2, and then nearly doubled to 15,989 during July 3?9.

Notably, the number of imported cases among confirmed patients increased from the low 100s to the 200s during the same period, reaching 250 on the 10th, marking the highest since late January.

Initially, the government had anticipated the resurgence to occur around this fall. After the decline in cases plateaued at the end of last month, officials stated that "the trend of the outbreak would likely fluctuate with slight increases or decreases." On the 6th of this month, they diagnosed that "the scale of confirmed cases, which had been decreasing, clearly shifted to an increasing trend." On the 8th, Lee Gi-il, the first chief coordinator attending the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters meeting, said, "COVID-19 has shifted back into a spreading phase. Warning signs of a resurgence are turning on one by one," effectively confirming the resurgence.

Due to the unexpectedly rapid spread, warnings have emerged that daily new cases could reach 200,000 as early as next month. Professor Lee Jae-gap of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Hallym University Kangnam Sacred Heart Hospital said, "(The COVID-19 situation) is still fluid and uncertain," but added, "Most current predictive models expect that by mid to late August, or at the latest September or October, the number of confirmed cases could rise to between 100,000 and 200,000."

The government plans to announce response measures on the 13th, including extending the isolation requirement for confirmed cases and expanding eligibility for the fourth dose of the vaccine as part of the resurgence countermeasures.