[Column] Speculation and 'Lotto Subscription'

The number of subscribers to the housing subscription savings account reached 28,597,808 as of last month and continues to increase every month. The Yoon Seok-yeol administration has announced plans to reform the subscription system, including expanding the lottery system, to increase housing opportunities for the 2030 youth generation. As a result, new subscribers are growing faster, and there is even speculation that the "30 million subscription account era" could arrive as early as the end of this year.

Another reason for the net increase in subscription accounts is the "account backlog." When someone wins the lottery and achieves their dream of owning a home, their subscription account is naturally canceled, but since many do not win, the number of accounts inevitably increases. Consequently, the current subscription market is flooded with high-score applicants. On the 24th of last month, the "e-Pyeonhansesang Jichuk Centum Garden" in Jichuk-dong, Deogyang-gu, Goyang-si, Gyeonggi Province, which received first-priority subscription applications, attracted 17,742 applicants for 103 units excluding special supply, recording a competition rate of 172.25 to 1. The minimum subscription score for winning the general supply first-priority subscription was 69 points. A score of 69 is the highest possible score for a family of four. Despite this, many high-score applicants were rejected due to the overwhelming number of applicants. A sales official said, "Since this was a 'lottery subscription' in the metropolitan area with a price difference of 500 to 600 million KRW, it seems that many high-score accounts that had been backlogged gathered."

In the past, high-score applicants could simply wait until a desired location and price were available for sale, but that is no longer the case. On the 21st of last month, the government announced improvements to the price ceiling system, deciding to reflect essential costs of redevelopment projects such as relocation financing costs, eviction lawsuit fees, and business loss compensation in the sale price. The basic construction cost will also increase. A rise in sale prices is inevitable. The environment will inevitably reduce the number of "lottery subscriptions." The strategy of enduring 15 to 20 years of jeonse (long-term lease) and then making hundreds of millions to billions of KRW in price differences through one subscription to compensate for past hardships is becoming much less feasible. In this regard, the group most upset by the subscription system reform is the 40s and 50s generation. The 2030 generation can aim for the increased lottery quota while accumulating points. Although the subscription system has been reformed countless times, it has always carried the potential for generational conflict and will continue to do so.

As the era of 30 million subscription accounts approaches, new considerations about the subscription system are necessary. Not only the content of the reforms but also questions about the system itself are needed. When a multi-homeowner buys one more house and aims for a profit of 100 million KRW, it is called "speculation." In the case of major upcoming sale complexes in Gangnam, the expected price difference exceeds 1 billion KRW. Can it be considered fair for a non-homeowner to gain a 1 billion KRW profit through subscription?