COVID-19 Resurgence, Faster Than Expected... "This Week Critical for Rapid Spread Surge"

New Daily Cases at 18,000 Level, Highest in 40 Days... Over 170 Imported Cases
Weekly Average Daily Cases Exceed 10,000 Showing Clear Increase Trend

On the 29th, when the Gimpo-Haneda flight route resumed operations, passengers were moving to depart at the international terminal of Gimpo Airport in Gangseo-gu, Seoul. / Photo by Moon Honam munonam@

[Asia Economy Reporter Jo In-kyung] As the COVID-19 outbreak turns to an upward trend, the number of new daily confirmed cases surged to the 18,000 range. Concerns are emerging that this week, the first week of July, could become a critical turning point as the country enters a full-scale resurgence phase.

According to the Central Disease Control Headquarters on the 5th, as of midnight that day, the number of new COVID-19 confirmed cases increased by 18,147 from the previous day, marking the highest figure in 40 days since May 26, when 18,805 cases were reported.

This is three times the number of cases reported the previous day (6,253), which reflected the weekend effect. Compared to the same day last week, June 28, when 9,894 cases were recorded, it increased by 1.8 times, and compared to two weeks ago on June 21 (9,303 cases), it doubled, indicating a clear upward trend in the outbreak.

Since the Omicron variant outbreak peaked in March this year, the number of confirmed cases had been steadily decreasing, but the decline slowed down gradually and hit a low of 3,423 cases on June 27, after which it began to rise again. Over the week from June 29, the daily new confirmed cases were 10,455 → 9,591 → 9,523 → 10,713 → 10,053 → 6,253 → 18,147, averaging over 10,000 cases per day (10,676). This is more than 3,500 cases higher than the previous week's (June 22?28) daily average of 7,147 cases.

With the exemption of quarantine for incoming travelers and the increase in international flights, the number of imported cases among new confirmed cases is also continuously rising. Since June 24, when 113 imported cases were confirmed, the daily number of imported cases has exceeded 100, reaching over 200 (206 cases) on June 29, and then 191 on July 3, 164 on July 4, and 171 on the day of the report.

The health authorities expect that the decline in the COVID-19 outbreak has reached its limit and that the trend will likely fluctuate with slight increases and decreases for the time being. However, experts believe that the spread of infection could definitively return to an upward trend as early as this week, potentially advancing the resurgence initially expected to begin in the fall by more than two months. Some opinions suggest that if the outbreak rebounds by the end of this month, the daily average number of confirmed cases could reach 150,000 to 200,000 by autumn.

Professor Jung Jae-hoon of the Department of Preventive Medicine at Gachon University Gil Medical Center previously predicted, "COVID-19 cases may increase again around late June to early July," adding, "Due to waning immunity and the emergence of variants, a moderate-scale outbreak is inevitable."

Professor Baek Soon-young, emeritus professor at the Catholic University School of Medicine, stated, "The upward trend in the outbreak is expected to continue for the time being, but we need to observe how steep the increase will be," warning, "If the number of severe cases rises further and daily confirmed cases exceed 150,000, it could become a crisis situation similar to the Omicron pandemic."