Japan's Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito Expected to Secure Majority Seats in Upper House Election on the 10th

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida campaigning in support of the House of Councillors election [Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Jeong Hyunjin] In the upcoming Japanese House of Councillors election scheduled for the 10th, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner Komeito are expected to secure a majority of seats and maintain the quorum necessary for constitutional revision. As the election is largely seen as a referendum on the current cabinet, the increased likelihood of victory could lay the groundwork for Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's long-term administration.

On the 4th, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun and Yomiuri Shimbun reported that a public opinion survey conducted from the 1st to the 3rd among approximately 60,000 voters projected that the LDP and Komeito would exceed the majority threshold of 63 seats out of the 125 seats to be elected in this election. Since the LDP-Komeito coalition currently holds 70 non-contested seats, they need to secure at least 55 seats in this election to maintain a majority.

According to the reports, the Japanese National Diet consists of the House of Representatives (lower house) and the House of Councillors (upper house). The term for members of the House of Councillors is six years, with half of the seats up for election every three years. The total number of seats in the House of Councillors has increased from 245 to 248, and this election will fill 125 seats (75 constituency seats and 50 proportional representation seats), including one vacancy in the Kanagawa electoral district.

Currently, the LDP is expected to secure between 55 and 65 seats, while Komeito is projected to obtain around 10 to 15 seats. In the 32 single-member districts, which are considered decisive for the election outcome, the LDP is favored in 60% of them, with the remaining 40% being competitive with opposition parties such as the Constitutional Democratic Party, according to Nihon Keizai Shimbun. If the LDP surpasses 60 seats, it will be the third time under the current electoral system, following 2001 and 2003, that the party has exceeded this number.

This election is also expected to maintain the quorum necessary for constitutional revision discussions. Currently, four parties?the LDP, Komeito, Nippon Ishin no Kai, and the Democratic Party for the People?already hold 84 seats. The newspapers anticipate that pro-constitutional revision forces, including independent members, will secure a total of at least 82 seats in this election. Accordingly, the required quorum of two-thirds of all members (166 seats) to propose constitutional amendments in the Diet is expected to be maintained, Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported.

However, since about 10% of respondents indicated they have not yet decided which party or candidate to vote for, the situation is expected to remain fluid until election day, according to Nihon Keizai Shimbun.

Japanese voters appear to be highly concerned about economic issues in this election. In the public opinion survey released on the same day, when asked about the most important policy issue, 37% responded with "measures related to the economy and high prices," followed by "social security such as pensions" at 20%, and "diplomacy and security" at 14%.

On the last holiday before the election, the 3rd, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, leading the LDP, emphasized the achievements of the recent Group of Seven (G7) summit and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit, highlighting diplomacy and security issues, Asahi Shimbun reported. The opposition Constitutional Democratic Party also stressed diplomacy and security issues, stating, "We want to be a party entrusted with security policy." Komeito made statements emphasizing social security and education.