Turkey Withdraws Opposition to Sweden and Finland NATO Membership... Russia's Isolation Deepens in Europe (Comprehensive)

Shift to Support Joining Over US and Security Issue Compromise
Russia's Kaliningrad Surrounded by NATO Countries by Land and Sea
Russian Foreign Ministry Announces Closure of Two Exchange Institutions with Sweden

At the opening ceremony of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit held in Madrid, Spain, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg (third from the left) and Recep Tayyip Erdo?an, President of T?rkiye (Turkey) (fourth from the left), along with the negotiation teams for Sweden and Finland's NATO membership approval, gathered for a photo. On this day, President Erdo?an withdrew his previous opposition and approved Sweden and Finland's NATO membership. Madrid (Spain) = Photo by AP and Yonhap News

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] The Turkish government has withdrawn its previous opposition to Sweden and Finland joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and announced its approval of their membership. With the NATO accession of the two countries becoming a foregone conclusion, Russia's diplomatic and military isolation within Europe is expected to deepen further.

In particular, once the NATO accession procedures for both countries are completed, conflicts between the West and Russia surrounding Russia's exclave territory Kaliningrad?which will be cut off by all land and sea routes?are expected to intensify. Concerns are also rising over the increased possibility of Russian military provocations against Baltic Sea neighboring countries.

According to CNN on the 28th (local time), Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary General, stated at a press conference held before the NATO summit in Madrid, Spain, "Turkey has agreed to Sweden and Finland's NATO membership and has signed a memorandum of understanding to address Turkey's concerns, including arms exports and counter-terrorism," emphasizing, "As a result, Russian President Vladimir Putin now faces more NATO countries at the border."

Earlier that day, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo?an, Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson, and Finnish President Sauli Niinist? held a trilateral meeting. After four hours of discussion, the three countries reportedly reached an agreement.

Until now, Turkey had opposed the NATO membership of Sweden and Finland, citing as the main reasons their support for the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which threatens Turkey's national security, and the arms embargo imposed on Turkey. On the surface, through this trilateral meeting and the signing of the memorandum of understanding, Sweden and Finland have declared their full acceptance of Turkey's demands, and Turkey appears to have approved their NATO membership.

However, it is analyzed that Turkey's position shifted behind the scenes due to a security compromise reached with the U.S. Biden administration. According to the Associated Press, President Erdo?an said at a press conference before departing for Spain, "I spoke with President Biden on the phone and urged him to expedite approval for the purchase of F-16 modernization equipment promised by the U.S."

Previously, since September last year, the Turkish government had requested the U.S. government to purchase F-16 modernization equipment to modernize its air force capabilities, a major security issue, but the U.S. had not accepted the request. Subsequently, as the Biden administration entered negotiations to approve Turkey's, Sweden's, and Finland's NATO membership, it appears to have accepted Turkey's conditions. According to Bloomberg News, the Biden administration has requested approval from the U.S. Congress for the sale of F-16 modernization equipment to Turkey since last month.

After much difficulty, with Turkey's position reversal, the NATO accession process for Sweden and Finland is expected to proceed swiftly. According to The New York Times (NYT), at this NATO summit, the heads of state of the 30 member countries will sign the approval for the two countries' NATO membership, and once the ratification procedures in each member country's parliament are completed, Sweden and Finland are expected to join NATO within the next few months.

With the NATO membership of the two countries effectively decided, Russia will become even more isolated in Europe. In particular, the exclave territory Kaliningrad is now completely surrounded by NATO countries?land borders with Poland and Lithuania, and sea borders with Sweden and Finland.

Earlier, Lithuania restricted the transport of freight trains passing through its territory starting from the 18th, and if Sweden and Finland impose maritime transport restrictions after joining NATO, Russia's only ice-free port, Kaliningrad, is expected to be completely blockaded.

The Russian government expressed displeasure by announcing the closure of Swedish external propaganda offices and other exchange institutions within Russia. According to Russia's TASS news agency, the Russian Foreign Ministry stated in a press release, "We have demanded the immediate cessation of activities and withdrawal of two organizations?the Swedish external propaganda office and the International Development Cooperation Department in Russia," criticizing, "These organizations have served as tools to implement Sweden's strategy."