[Choi Min-gyu's Baseball Prism] There Is Also 'Sacrifice Base Running' in Baseball

St. Louis vs Pittsburgh: Full Sprint in a Routine Force Out Situation
Unprecedented Gorman Base Running Leads to Molina Scoring Run
Advanced US Baseball Statistical Analysis Favors Higher Probability Choice
No Official Name, Recorded as 'Advancement to Second Base on Fielder's Choice'

An unprecedented baserunning play occurred in Major League Baseball. It happened during the first game of a doubleheader between the home team St. Louis Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Pirates at Busch Stadium on the 15th (Korean time). The Cardinals took a 2-0 lead in the bottom of the 3rd inning with a two-run homer by Paul Goldschmidt. In the bottom of the 4th, the team got an additional scoring opportunity with two errors by the opponent and a walk, resulting in bases loaded with two outs. Nolan Gorman, Edmundo Sosa, and Yadier Molina were ready to run at first, second, and third base respectively.

Goldschmidt stepped up to the plate and hit a routine ground ball toward Pittsburgh shortstop Diego Castillo. Castillo fielded the ball and threw slowly to second baseman Chang Yu-Cheng from Taiwan, who was covering second base. It was a straightforward force out situation. Sliding into second base is common baseball sense for the runner at first. However, the 22-year-old rookie Gorman sprinted full speed. Because Castillo’s toss was slow, the call was safe.

Since Gorman did not slide, he could not stop at second base. Trying to stop abruptly could have caused injury. The flustered Chang Yu-Cheng calmly pushed Gorman toward third base. Sosa, who was at third, had no choice but to run home as Gorman approached. When Chang threw to catcher Jason Delay, Sosa, blocked by the throw, slid headfirst back to third base. Gorman was caught in a rundown, and Sosa took advantage of the situation to dash home again. Castillo, holding the ball and pushing Gorman toward third, threw home again, and Delay tagged out Sosa, ending the inning.

Looking only at the chaotic rundown play, it seems like a failure for St. Louis. However, the expressions of the runners returning to the dugout showed satisfaction. They had achieved their intended goal. Gorman played very smartly. If he had slid at second base on Goldschmidt’s ground ball, he would likely have been out. Sliding slows down baserunning speed. Castillo, who made the toss, must have been confident about the out timing. If a force out occurs at second base, even if the runner at third base Molina touches home before the out, the run does not count according to baseball rules.

Gorman is a power-hitting prospect. His speed is not exceptional. When approaching second base, he had two options. The first was to slide. If safe, Molina’s run would count and the bases loaded with two outs opportunity would continue. If out, the inning would end without scoring. The second was to sprint full speed. The chance of being safe was slightly higher, but he could not stop at second base. Unless the opponent made a mistake, he was likely to be out by overrunning. Gorman chose full-speed sprinting, which had a higher chance of scoring at least one run, over sliding, which was an all-or-nothing choice. With the safe call and Molina’s run counting, his decision was rewarded.

The game situation also called for one run rather than a big score. Rookie left-handed starting pitcher Matthew Liberatore was pitching well on the mound. Pittsburgh is a team with a weak batting lineup, so a lead difference of two or three runs is significant. Opposing starter JT Brubaker was also pitching well, relying on his main weapon, the slider. Recently, Major League Baseball has been a pitcher-friendly environment. The National League, to which both teams belong, introduced the designated hitter rule this year. However, the ERA dropped from 4.21 last year to 4.16 this year. With Molina’s run, St. Louis’s win probability rose from 58.9% to 64.1%. They maintained the advantage until the end and won 3-1.

Jeon Jun-ho, baserunning coach for Lotte’s second team, who watched the play on video, said, "In my experience, this play has never happened in Korean professional baseball. Without exception, the runner at first slides in that situation." He added, "If he had slid normally, I would have called the out timing. It was a smart play that earned the team one run. If the opponent made a mistake in the ensuing rundown, additional runs could have been possible. We will discuss this internally within our team as well."

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

To the eyes of the former coach, a stolen base king in professional baseball, Gorman’s play seemed to be the result of training. "His turn motion after touching second base was good. If he had stepped outside the 3-foot line, he would have been out." His observation was accurate. After the game, St. Louis manager Oliver Marmol said, "Our organization has taught the tactic of breaking the force out at second base by sprinting full speed since the minor leagues." Before Goldschmidt stepped up to the plate, first base coach Stubby Clapp reminded Gorman that a situation requiring full-speed sprinting might arise.

American baseball has evolved toward making the most probable choice due to the development and spread of statistical analysis techniques. As a result, not only team management but also playing styles have become similar. Conversely, the element of surprise in games has decreased. The American sports magazine Sporting News recently compared baseball to "a card game where opponents know each other too well." In this context, the unprecedented play by Gorman and St. Louis was worthy of praise.

There is also a regrettable point. Gorman’s full-speed sprint that broke the force out at second base is officially recorded as ‘reaching second base on a fielder’s choice.’ It sounds too bland. Since it was unprecedented, there is no special name for this play. Gorman made a self-sacrificing play, risking his own out to bring one run for the team. Baseball already has plays named ‘Sacrifice.’ Following sacrifice bunts and sacrifice flies, it would be fitting to create a new term called ‘Sacrifice baserunning.’

Director of the Korea Baseball Society