WP, Russian Ammunition Rapidly Depleting... Limited Combat Success
US Think Tank Suggests Possible War Lull by Summer
[Asia Economy International Desk Reporter] The Washington Post (WP) reported on the 24th (local time), citing Western intelligence and military officials, that the Russian military will soon exhaust its combat power.
Intelligence officials say that despite the massive amount of resources the Russian military is pouring in, their victories have been minimal, and if this situation continues, there will come a time when they completely halt their offensive.
A senior official said, "The Russian military is rapidly consuming large amounts of ammunition," adding, "It's hard to imagine any other military in the world continuously shelling at this scale." Another official predicted that the Russian military's 'very small advances' will reach an unsustainable state, forecasting, "At some point, they will hit the pause button."
WP noted this assessment despite the ongoing situation where Russia controls about 95% of Luhansk Province and roughly half of Donetsk Province in Ukraine, seemingly gaining an advantage in the war.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson also recently stated in an interview with German media that "Russia's ability to sustain combat will last only a few months."
This outlook is also sensed within Russia. WP reported that a Russian military blogger mentioned chronic manpower shortages on his Telegram account, writing that "there does not seem to be enough stamina to continue the special military operation in Ukraine."
However, WP explained that considering Russia is pulling out old Soviet-era weapons from warehouses to compensate for equipment shortages, while the Ukrainian military is transitioning to advanced weapon systems supported by the United States and other European countries, the tide of the war could change.
Former U.S. European Command Commander Ben Hodges predicted, "The Ukrainian military will be able to receive ample Western weapons supplies over the next few months," and "the situation will develop in favor of Ukraine."
Michael Kofman, a Russia expert at the U.S. think tank Center for Naval Analyses (CNA), also said, "It is true that the Ukrainian military is going through a difficult period, but it does not seem like they will collapse all at once," adding, "The overall balance of power is much more important than capturing specific points."
There was also an analysis suggesting that the war might enter a lull around summer.
Kofman said, "Not only must morale be maintained, but now it has become a competition of resources," adding, "By summer, both sides will be exhausted."
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