[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] North and South Korea Establishing Operational Plans Based on Nuclear Weapons

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] North Korea has publicly announced plans to add operational missions for its frontline units and revise its operational plans (OPLAN), raising speculation that it may be concretizing threats against South Korea using tactical nuclear weapons. Since South Korea has also been working with the United States since last year to establish a new combined operational plan reflecting North Korea’s nuclear capabilities, both sides have effectively begun revising their operational plans citing nuclear issues.

Kim Jong-un, General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea, presided over the 3rd Enlarged Meeting of the 8th Central Military Commission on the 21st and 22nd, discussing the addition of operational missions for frontline units, revisions to operational plans, and military organizational restructuring.

This is reportedly the first time North Korea has publicly mentioned operational plans. Although specific details were not disclosed, the mention of frontline units near the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) and the release of photos showing a military operational map covering the South Korean east coast axis up to Pohang clearly indicated a focus on South Korea.

By adding an ‘important military action plan’ to the frontline units’ missions, it is believed that North Korea has assigned a ‘preemptive strike’ strategic tactic in response to South Korea’s three-axis system, including the forward deployment of tactical nuclear weapons. While not explicitly disclosed, it is analyzed that the operational plan revision aims to enable frontline units to operate short-range missiles equipped with small nuclear warheads.

Earlier this month, North Korea launched eight short-range ballistic missiles. These missiles, fired from four locations, included the KN-23 (North Korean version of Iskander), KN-24 (North Korean version of ATACMS), KN-25 (super-large multiple rocket launcher), and a new tactical guided weapon first test-fired on April 16.

These missiles are capable of carrying nuclear warheads if North Korea proves successful miniaturization of nuclear warheads through its 7th nuclear test.

In April, North Korea announced plans to operate tactical nuclear weapons from frontline artillery units, publicly revealing intentions to widely deploy short-range nuclear delivery systems at the front lines.

In December last year, South Korea and the United States agreed to establish a new combined operational plan during the Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) between their defense ministers. The existing plan was deemed insufficient as it did not adequately reflect North Korea’s increasingly advanced nuclear and missile capabilities, according to military authorities from both countries.

The revision process begins with approval of the Strategic Planning Guidance (SPG), followed by agreement on the Strategic Planning Directive (SPD), and then the drafting of the operational plan. The SPD agreement was completed by the end of March, and the drafting process has now officially started.

The new operational plan is expected to be finalized around the end of the year. It will likely include frequent updates to priority target lists such as North Korea’s strategic and tactical nuclear storage facilities and nuclear warhead missiles. Although the operational plan is top secret and detailed contents will not be disclosed, close monitoring of North Korea’s new operational plan trends may be incorporated into South Korea’s own plan.

Once the new plan is completed, South Korea and the United States are expected to develop combined training plans for nuclear attack preparedness. These plans will likely be detailed into areas such as surveillance of North Korean nuclear facilities and bases, detection of nuclear use signs, and destruction in case of actual use.