"Even Fully Recovered Patients Easily Infected"…Possibility of Sharp Increase in Deaths Amid Concerns of COVID-19 Variant Resurgence

Superior 'Immune Evasion Ability' Compared to Initial Variant
Transmission Speed Also 10-15% Faster

On the 17th, the beach in Bournemouth, a resort city in the UK, was crowded with vacationers seeking relief from the heat. / Photo by Reuters Yonhap News

[Asia Economy Reporter Na Ye-eun] Ahead of the summer vacation season, as the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases and hospitalizations rapidly increase in Europe, analyses suggest that a 'COVID-19 resurgence' is imminent.

On the 22nd (local time), CNN in the United States reported, "The effectiveness of vaccines administered last year is gradually waning, and with a surge in travel worldwide due to the summer vacation season, there is a possibility that a global COVID-19 pandemic caused by BA.4 and BA.5 variants could return."

According to the UK Oxford University's statistics site Our World in Data, as of the 21st, countries such as Germany, France, Greece, Austria, Italy, Switzerland, and Spain, which had hit a low point in COVID-19 cases earlier this month, are now showing a rising trend again.

Among European countries, Portugal is experiencing the steepest increase in confirmed cases. As of the 21st, the recent 7-day average number of confirmed cases per one million people in Portugal reached 1,333. The number of hospitalized patients also rose to 1,896, approaching the record high of 2,560 hospitalizations during the Omicron surge in January.

Portugal's COVID-19 transmission is primarily driven by the Omicron subvariant BA.5. BA.5 was first detected in Portugal at the end of March and became the dominant strain in less than two months. On the 5th, 84% of all new confirmed cases were identified as BA.5 infections.

The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) recently warned, "BA.4 and BA.5 could become the dominant strains across Europe, potentially leading to a sharp increase in confirmed cases."

Medical staff caring for COVID-19 patients in Germany.
Photo by AP Yonhap News

BA.4 and BA.5 are known to have superior immune evasion capabilities compared to the initial Omicron variants and transmit 10 to 15% faster.

According to CNN, on the 22nd (local time), researchers from Harvard Medical School and Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston announced a study finding that "BA.4 and BA.5 can easily cause infections even in individuals who have recovered from COVID-19 or have been fully vaccinated."

In the study, the level of neutralizing antibodies produced by COVID-19 recovered patients and vaccinated individuals against BA.4 and BA.5 was found to be 1/21 of the level against the pre-variant coronavirus. Similarly, those who recovered from infection showed a neutralizing antibody level against BA.4 and BA.5 that was 1/18.7 of the previous level.

Dan Barouch, director at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, explained, "This study suggests that even with high vaccination rates and natural immunity, infections from BA.4 and BA.5 can surge."

The proportion of BA.4 and BA.5 detections is also increasing in countries like France, the UK, and Germany, where confirmed cases are rising.

In France, the daily number of new confirmed cases per one million people nearly tripled from 280 at the beginning of this month to 748 on the 21st. Genetic testing conducted on the 6th showed a BA.5 detection rate of 24%, which is a 6 percentage point increase from 18% a week earlier.

In the UK, the spread of BA.4 and BA.5 has led to a sharp rise in confirmed cases and hospitalizations. According to data from the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS), the weekly increase rate of COVID-19 cases recently reached 43%.

Professor Benjamin Davido, an infectious disease expert at Raymond Poincar? Hospital in Paris, stated, "The speed of COVID-19 spread is increasing at an unexpected time. With mask mandates lifted and people's immunity weakening, the risk is growing even more."

While BA.4 and BA.5 pose a relatively low risk of progressing to severe illness after infection, their rapid spread could cause hospitalizations and deaths among vulnerable groups to rise sharply.

In a recent report, the expert advisory committee of Berlin city authorities warned, "Although German society is currently protected by high immunity levels and the circulation of milder variants, if immunity rapidly declines and a dangerous new variant emerges, hospitals could be overwhelmed by COVID-19 patients, leading to the worst-case scenario."