[Expert Roundtable] "Local Elections, Not a Big Win for Kukhim but a Complete Defeat for Minju... Pursuing Constitutional Amendment and Pension Reform"

Yuchangseon Political Commentator "Democratic Party Shows Refusal to Accept Presidential Election Results... No Reflection on Defeat"
Park Myungho Dongguk University Professor "Democratic Party Barely Saves Face with Gyeonggi Province Governor Election Win"
Lee Taeksu Realmeter CEO "Low Voter Turnout Also a Political Expression Through Abstention"

Roundtable Discussion on the Results of the 8th Local Elections. From the left, Yoo Chang-sun, Political Commentator; Park Myung-ho, Professor at Dongguk University; Lee Taek-soo, CEO of Realmeter. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

[Asia Economy Reporter Geum Bo-ryeong] The 8th nationwide simultaneous local elections ended in a landslide victory for the People Power Party. Among the 17 metropolitan and provincial governors, the People Power Party secured 12 seats, and in the by-elections for the National Assembly, the People Power Party won 5 out of 7 constituencies. Political commentators summarized that this political landscape was shaped not so much by the People Power Party's excellence but by the Democratic Party's series of mistakes. They evaluated that since the election was held just 22 days after the inauguration of the Yoon Seok-yeol administration, the ruling party now has the power to drive state affairs and simultaneously gained an opportunity to demonstrate political capability. Regarding the Democratic Party, they judged that voters delivered a harsher judgment than in the presidential election and urged the party to reflect quietly and cooperate in state governance for the time being.

Asia Economy arranged an opportunity on the 2nd to diagnose the significance of this local election result and the future political direction with three experts. The roundtable included Professor Park Myung-ho of Dongguk University's Department of Political Science and Public Administration, political commentator Yoo Chang-sun, and Lee Taek-soo, CEO of Realmeter (in alphabetical order).

- How would you summarize this local election?

▲CEO Lee Taek-soo= From the Democratic Party's perspective, it was an election of revival, a near-death experience. The voter turnout is a point to note. Generally, the turnout in the high 50% range was lower than expected, but 50.9% was completely unexpected. Many Democratic Party supporters expressed their political will by abstaining from voting. I think those who supported Lee Jae-myung, the winning candidate in the Incheon Gyeyang-eul National Assembly by-election, withdrew their support this time and did not vote. While it could be described as a landslide victory for the People Power Party, I see it as a crushing defeat for the Democratic Party. After the presidential election, in the 'lost but fought well' atmosphere, people hoped the Democratic Party would reflect, but instead, the party was swayed by hardliners, failing to properly reflect or reorganize its system, resulting in a complete defeat.

▲Professor Park Myung-ho= It was exquisite. Especially the Gyeonggi Province governor election was reversed around 5:32 a.m., which ultimately saved the Democratic Party's face. A 13 to 4 result would have been worse than 12 to 5, and I think it had symbolic significance. It gave the ruling party a feeling of victory but somewhat unsatisfactory, and to the opposition, although they lost, it was not a total annihilation but left seeds for some recovery and turnaround. In that sense, it was exquisite. From the ruling party's perspective, they completed about one-third of the replacement. So far, it has come relatively easily, but there will be judgment regarding the process toward central legislative power in the general election two years later, so from now on, they will truly be subject to evaluation.

▲Commentator Yoo Chang-sun= It can be said that 'public sentiment delivered a harsher judgment on the Democratic Party than in the presidential election.' In fact, the Democratic Party's defeat was anticipated. The Democratic Party has shown an attitude of effectively rejecting the presidential election results. They pushed legislative unilateralism symbolized by 'prosecutorial reform' to the forefront and did not engage in any reflection on the presidential election defeat during that time. It was the first time I saw a ruling party that lost power after five years without any evaluation. The Democratic Party's behavior after the presidential election actually triggered a stronger will among the moderate voters to punish the Democratic Party than during the presidential election. It seems the Democratic Party's supporters' turnout dropped because they could not find a reason to support the party at the polls. Seeing the prosecutorial reform spectacle, the conservative camp actively pushed to punish the Democratic Party.

Roundtable Discussion on the Results of the 8th Local Elections. Yoo Chang-sun, Political Commentator. / Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

So, do you think the People Power Party's landslide victory was due to the Democratic Party's mistakes?

▲Yoo= Since it was less than a month after the Yoon Seok-yeol administration took office, I think so. There were personnel management failures, and while the opening of the Blue House had some effect, it was not enough for such a landslide victory. Ultimately, the Democratic Party's attitude of rejecting the presidential election results led the public to punish the Democratic Party.

▲Lee= If the Democratic Party was going to clarify the causes of the presidential election defeat and apologize, they should have done so in unison, but instead, they spent the entire local election period arguing over 'why apologize.' They appointed a young female youth emergency committee chair, but within the party, factions and external speakers who criticize apologies are controlling the party. They are repeating the same confusion that the People Power Party experienced 5 to 10 years ago.

▲Park= The Democratic Party leadership's internal strife was the problem. Bringing in emergency committee chair Park Ji-hyun was probably to utilize her image. But when she tried to cross the control line, it caused displeasure and discord. I think the Democratic Party's contribution was a necessary condition for the People Power Party's landslide victory. The sufficient condition was the public's expectation for the new government.

From the Democratic Party's perspective, former President Moon Jae-in himself is symbolic, and there is so-called 'Moonbba' (Moon supporters), so can it be said that they relied on that?

▲Yoo= More than that, I diagnose that rational thinking has been collectively lost within the Democratic Party. The ability to rationally and balancedly judge any political situation is now paralyzed. The party structure itself has become dominated by pro-Moon hardliners, so only hardline voices exist within the Democratic Party, and other voices are excluded, solidifying the party as such.

Many presidential hopefuls were elected in the National Assembly by-elections.

▲Lee= If Lee Jae-myung had lost in Incheon Gyeyang-eul, his political life would have practically ended, but since he survived, it is true that he took a step toward the next presidential election. The problem is what kind of moves he will make in the National Assembly after the next party leadership challenge and whether an actual Lee Jae-myung faction can be formed within the party. For now, he will inevitably be evaluated as having sacrificed the party to survive, but the party leadership challenge seems clear. If he becomes party leader, he will be fully armored, making it difficult for judicial authorities to investigate and indict him easily. Ahn Cheol-soo, the winning candidate in the Seongnam Bundang-gap National Assembly by-election, will also challenge the party leadership. Since Ahn Cheol-soo has not shown much affinity within the political circle so far, how much of an Ahn Cheol-soo faction he can create is also important. If he shows coexistence with party leader Lee Jun-seok, opportunities may come for Ahn Cheol-soo as well.

▲Park= Lee Jae-myung seems to change frequently according to political interests. He shows very quick responsiveness when it comes to things like relocating Gimpo Airport, which ultimately gains votes and political benefits, but this raises questions among people such as 'What is his identity?' 'What is consistent?' and 'What values does he pursue?' If Lee Jae-myung wants to continue his political career, this is something to consider.

▲Yoo= He survived but is full of wounds. Trust inside and outside the party has rather been damaged. Running in Gyeyang instead of Bundang, which was safer, gave the impression that the presidential election loser was trying to survive at all costs, which negatively affected the Democratic Party. The Gimpo Airport relocation pledge was clearly a negative factor in the Jeju election, and even within the Democratic Party, there were comments like 'He is killing the party to save himself.' Criticism that his candidacy was wrong is coming one after another from the pro-Moon faction. Therefore, Lee Jae-myung's future path will not be smooth even within the Democratic Party, and running for party leader will not be easy.

Roundtable Discussion on the Results of the 8th Local Elections. Lee Taek-su, CEO of Realmeter. / Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

Is there a possibility of political realignment originating from the Democratic Party?

▲Lee= If the general election were imminent, it would be different, but there is no election for now. I don't know if the non-mainstream within the Democratic Party will have the momentum to create a new party during the first or second year of President Yoon Seok-yeol's full-term administration. If some members feel 'I probably won't get a nomination,' there will be lawmakers who jump ship. Such a mood will likely appear about six months to a year before the 2024 general election.

It seems the Yoon Seok-yeol administration will gain momentum in state governance through the local elections. What should be the first task?

▲Park= I think considerable political skill must be exercised. Especially the ruling party's role is important. The ruling party is likely in the process of reorganizing or being reorganized into a pro-Yoon faction. Experienced and politically skilled people should play leadership roles. It is necessary to maintain appropriate tension and cooperation. The president has many political resources, opportunities, and means, and these must be well utilized.

▲Lee= It is irresponsible for 'Yoon core relations' and 'Yongsan core relations' to reveal the president's intentions while hiding behind anonymity, and I think President Yoon must be very cautious about this. Since negative elements of Yongsan core relations and Yoon core relations were exposed regarding the appointment of the special inspector, President Yoon should resolve these issues as much as possible within the system.

▲Yoo= I hope gender policy progresses. This issue was serious during the presidential election but was stigmatized as only fostering male-female conflict. Male-biased personnel appointments were shocking, but belatedly deciding to 'take care of women' is progress. Now, the government should have a deeper understanding of women's issues, starting from the president, so that the Yoon Seok-yeol administration receives a changed evaluation. For integration, I would add one more thing: conservative groups hold daily rallies at former President Moon Jae-in's residence, and I hope President Yoon pays some attention to that. If the president finds it difficult to appeal for restraint, it would be good to do so through the Minister of the Interior and Safety.

There are no elections until 2024, so both ruling and opposition parties should focus on their fundamental roles. What do you think they should do?

▲Park= The most urgent issue is political reform discussions. It requires lengthy discussions. Especially the electoral system?surely it won't be the same as last time in the general election the year after next. If it is, distortions will occur. Because this is not resolved, responsible prime ministers are not appointed, and responsible ministers even less so. For example, a responsible prime minister is not appointed just by saying 'You are now the responsible prime minister.' The starting point must be to provide a political foundation.

▲Lee= What can be done early in the administration is a one-point constitutional amendment for political reform. Constitutional amendments have always been considered a card to be played when a presidential crisis occurs in the mid-to-late term, so there is no driving force. Also, the national pension reform discussed during the presidential election is an area where the ruling and opposition parties can easily reach an agreement.

Roundtable Discussion on the Results of the 8th Local Elections. Professor Park Myung-ho, Dongguk University. / Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

Society= Choi Il-gwon, Head of Political Department