JCS: "North Korea Has Completed Preparations for Provocation"

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] North Korea has completed preparations for a nuclear test and an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch. With a high possibility of North Korea carrying out a strategic provocation during President Biden's visit to South Korea and Japan, it is expected that the provocation will occur this week.

On the morning of the 24th, Kim Jun-rak, spokesperson for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, responded to questions regarding North Korean military movements at the Ministry of National Defense regular briefing, stating, "We believe that North Korea's preparations for a nuclear test and missile launch have been completed," and added, "South Korea and the U.S. are closely cooperating to meticulously track and monitor related developments."

On the 17th (local time), ahead of President Biden's visit to South Korea, CNN cited U.S. intelligence officials reporting that as of that time, North Korea appeared to be preparing a missile test that could be an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) within 48 to 96 hours. South Korean military and intelligence authorities have also reportedly detected signs of ICBM launch preparations and have been closely monitoring related developments.

However, contrary to these expectations, as of the morning of that day, North Korea has not made any provocations nor commented on the joint statement from the South Korea-U.S. summit or President Biden's tour.

That said, since President Biden is scheduled to leave Japan late in the afternoon, and internally in North Korea, the funeral (state funeral) of Marshal Hyon Chol-hae, who recently passed away, has concluded, and they claim that the COVID-19 spread is in a calming phase, there is speculation that North Korea may begin provocations in earnest.

In this regard, Victor Cha, Deputy Director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), argued at a CSIS forum on the 23rd (local time) that North Korea might carry out additional provocations during the U.S. Memorial Day holiday weekend (May 30).