Compensation for Small Business Owners · 5·18 Memorial Ceremony
Yoon Administration's Inauguration Convention Shows Strong Effect
People Power Party Support Rate Exceeds 50% for First Time in 2 Years
Close Race Within Margin of Error in Gyeonggi and Chungcheong
Opposition: "Chasing Will Begin After Former President Roh Moo-hyun's Memorial Service"
[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] With the local elections on June 1 just 9 days away, recent polls show that the People Power Party (PPP) is leading in all regions except Honam and Jeju Island. As the PPP appears to have secured a favorable position, Gyeonggi Province and the Chungcheong region are expected to determine the outcome of the local elections.
According to recent regional poll analyses released on the 23rd by the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission and others, among the metropolitan autonomous entities, the PPP is performing well in 12 areas, while the Democratic Party is leading in 5. Initially, the Democratic Party had set a target of winning in more than 8 regions, and the PPP aimed for more than 9.
The current trend is the opposite of the 2018 local elections. At that time, the Democratic Party won in 14 out of 17 metropolitan autonomous entities. The predecessor of the PPP, the Liberty Korea Party, won in Daegu and Gyeongbuk, while Jeju was won by an independent candidate.
The Democratic Party shows a clear lead in Honam and Jeju. On the other hand, it is struggling in the competitive areas of the Seoul metropolitan area, Chungcheong region, and Gangwon Province. Particularly in Gyeonggi Province, considered the fiercest battleground by both parties in this election, PPP candidate Kim Eun-hye is slightly ahead of Democratic Party candidate Kim Dong-yeon within the margin of error. In Seoul, PPP candidate Oh Se-hoon is leading, while Democratic Party candidate Song Young-gil is narrowing the gap, but the difference in support remains significant.
In the Chungcheong region, Daejeon, Sejong, and South Chungcheong Province are showing close races within the margin of error. However, based on polls alone, PPP candidates are showing a strong trend except in South Chungcheong. Especially in North Chungcheong, PPP candidate Kim Young-hwan is leading Democratic Party candidate Noh Young-min beyond the margin of error. In Gangwon Province, PPP candidate Kim Jin-tae is slightly ahead of Democratic Party candidate Lee Kwang-jae, fluctuating around the margin of error.
Experts are paying attention to the honeymoon effect following the inauguration of the Yoon Seok-yeol administration. Choi Byung-chun, deputy director of the Korea Society Opinion Institute (KSOI), said, "Presidential approval ratings, government stability, and support for the PPP are all rising together," analyzing it as a "time-lag honeymoon effect." Particularly, before his inauguration, President Yoon's approval ratings did not rise due to the office relocation issue, but after taking office, he has increased the ruling party's support by taking a series of actions such as preparing a supplementary budget for small business compensation and attending the May 18 Gwangju Democratization Movement memorial ceremony.
In a poll conducted by Realmeter from the 16th to the 20th targeting 2,528 adults aged 18 and over nationwide, the PPP's support rate recorded 50.1%. This is the first time since February 2020 that the PPP (including its predecessors) has surpassed 50% in a regular Realmeter poll. This public opinion trend is also reflected in the local election sentiment, with the ruling party enjoying a honeymoon premium early in the administration.
The Democratic Party is expecting a chase to begin starting with the 13th anniversary memorial ceremony for former President Roh Moo-hyun on this day. Kim Min-seok, co-chief of the Democratic Party's election countermeasures committee, said the day before, "After the memorial ceremony, a fierce chase will begin in the competitive areas," and predicted, "The chase will start in competitive regions excluding the three Honam areas and Jeju, such as Gyeonggi, Incheon, South Chungcheong, Gangwon, and Sejong."
For detailed poll information, please refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website and others.
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