"If Isolation Requirements Are Fully Lifted, COVID-19 Cases Could Increase Up to 7.5 Times"

KDCA, Domestic Researchers Forecast COVID-19 Outbreak
Summer Resurgence Expected Due to Reduced Immunity Despite Quarantine Obligations Maintained

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Young-won] Health authorities and domestic researchers have predicted that if the COVID-19 isolation mandate is lifted and voluntary quarantine is not practiced, the number of confirmed cases could rise again.

On the 20th, the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) stated that as of July 31, the difference in case numbers between complete non-compliance and full compliance with isolation after the isolation mandate changes to a recommendation is estimated to be between 4.5 to 7.5 times.

Kim Heon-ju, First Deputy Head of the Central Disease Control Headquarters (Vice Commissioner of KDCA), said on the same day, "Even assuming the isolation mandate is maintained, due to waning immunity, a resurgence could begin as early as this summer, peaking around September to October," adding, "If the isolation mandate is lifted, a rebound could occur in June to July."

KDCA forecasted that if confirmed cases continue to be isolated as currently practiced, the number of new confirmed cases would decrease to 8,309 by the end of June and then rebound to the 9,000 range by the end of July. Under a scenario where about 50% comply with the recommended isolation, the expected confirmed cases would be 15,505 by the end of June and 24,724 by the end of July. Assuming complete lifting of isolation, daily new confirmed cases would immediately shift to an increasing trend, reaching 18,824 by the end of May and 24,725 by the end of June.

Among 10 domestic research teams, 9 concluded that without the isolation mandate, confirmed cases would increase again. One team predicted the number of cases would plateau.

The researchers projected that compared to maintaining isolation as is, a complete lifting of isolation would result in 6.2 times more confirmed cases, and a 3-day voluntary isolation would lead to 2.3 times more cases. However, the number of severe hospitalized patients is expected to remain within a manageable range for the healthcare system, estimated between 100 and 400 patients.

Meanwhile, considering these projections, health authorities postponed the originally scheduled decision on transitioning to the 'Post-Omicron' stabilization phase from the 23rd by four weeks.

Deputy Head Kim announced, "After comprehensively reviewing the recent epidemic situation, future forecasts, healthcare facility preparedness, and expert opinions, we have decided to maintain the current isolation mandate for the time being and to reassess the transition to voluntary isolation four weeks later based on the epidemic situation."

The government plans to establish and evaluate criteria for transitioning the isolation mandate through expert consultations and other measures on the 20th of next month, four weeks later.