With New Variant Emerging Abroad... Will the 'Return to Normalcy' Phase Be Delayed?

COVID-19 Wave Slows Down, Daily Life Rapidly Recovers
Nationwide Mobility Returns to Pre-COVID Levels...Outdoor Mask Mandate Lifted, Outing Season Impact
New Variant Influx May Delay 'Daily Life Recovery Stabilization' Phase
About 100,000 Confirmed Cases Expected to Vote in June 1 Local Elections
Health Authorities Establish COVID-19 Big Data Platform and Independent Expert Committee

On the 6th, when the mask mandate was being lifted, citizens visiting Yeouido Hangang Park in Seoul were seen taking off their masks. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Hyun-joo] Although social distancing has been lifted and daily life is rapidly returning to its former state, there are forecasts that the transition to the COVID-19 stabilization phase will be delayed. Experts say it is premature because, although the outbreak is declining, the risk of resurgence remains due to the influx of new variants.

The COVID-19 outbreak has entered a declining phase. According to the Central Disease Control Headquarters, as of midnight on the 19th, the number of new confirmed cases was 28,130, a decrease of 7,766 from 35,896 on the 12th a week ago, and 14,158 fewer than 42,288 on the 5th two weeks ago.

Thanks to this, our daily lives are recovering quickly. Since the full lifting of social distancing, nationwide mobility has returned to pre-COVID-19 levels. According to the Central Accident Response Headquarters of the Ministry of Health and Welfare, mobility during the third week after lifting social distancing (May 2 to May 8) was 283.25 million trips, 1.3% higher than the same period in 2019 before the COVID-19 outbreak (279.51 million trips). The outdoor mask mandate was lifted, and with the Children's Day holiday, nationwide mobility increased significantly. In the fourth week after lifting social distancing (May 9 to May 15), nationwide mobility was also 260.75 million trips, maintaining a similar level.

Public transportation usage has also recovered to pre-COVID-19 levels. The Seoul Metropolitan Government announced on the 18th that the number of weekday public transportation users in the second week of May was 10.28 million. This is an upward trend compared to 9.93 million in the fourth week of April and 10.07 million in the first week of May. It reached 85.5% of the May 2019 level (12.02 million) before COVID-19. Notably, the daily number of users surpassing 10 million is the first time since the fourth week of February 2020 (7.89 million).

On the 12th, when domestic and international tourism demand was increasing, the domestic terminal of Gimpo Airport in Gangseo-gu, Seoul, was bustling with travelers. Photo by Mun Ho-nam munonam@

However, there are growing prospects that the timing for the full transition to the 'post-COVID' era and the stabilization phase of daily life recovery will be delayed. Although the decline in cases has slowed, concerns about the risk of resurgence mean that lifting isolation requirements is considered premature. Earlier, the government downgraded COVID-19’s infectious disease classification from the highest level 1 to level 2, the same as measles and chickenpox, on the 25th of last month, setting a four-week 'transition period.' According to the original plan, the stabilization phase would begin on the 23rd, when the transition period ends. Upon entering the stabilization phase, the mandatory 7-day isolation would become a recommendation, and financial support payments would cease.

The decision on whether to transition to the stabilization phase of daily life recovery is expected to be announced on the 20th. The health authorities are comprehensively reviewing the current infection trends, the possibility of resurgence, the impact of new overseas variants, and the preparedness of the medical response system. Alongside this, changes such as lifting isolation requirements for confirmed cases will also be announced.

However, a variable is the recently introduced variant viruses in the country. There is a risk that new variants, which may become dominant like the Omicron variant with higher transmissibility than previous COVID-19 strains, could trigger a resurgence. According to the health authorities on the previous day, one case of the BA.4 variant and two cases of the BA.5 variant, which have been spreading in South Africa, were confirmed domestically.

Regarding foreign reports that these two variants evade vaccine immunity, the health authorities explained at a briefing on the 17th, "BA.4 and BA.5 have mutations in the spike protein on the virus surface, so there is a possibility of immune evasion," but added, "No unusual signs in transmissibility have been confirmed domestically."

There are also concerns that the upcoming June 1 local elections could increase the possibility of COVID-19 transmission. Park Young-jun, head of the epidemiological investigation team at the Central Disease Control Headquarters, responded at a press briefing for reporters, regarding the expectation that about 100,000 COVID-19 positive voters will participate in the local elections, "It is a given that opportunities for additional community transmission will logically increase, raising the possibility of spread. However, sufficient measures will be taken to minimize additional transmission." Park also added, "Based on similar experiences in previous elections, we will thoroughly prepare to minimize additional transmission."

Meanwhile, on the same day, the health authorities announced plans to establish a ‘COVID-19 Big Data Platform’ by December to support COVID-19 control measures based on science and data. They also plan to promptly form an expert-centered independent committee to ensure that expert opinions are more systematically reflected in the decision-making process for quarantine policies.