WHO, CSIS Mention Possibility of New COVID-19 Variant in North Korea
"Situation Different from Africa Where Variants Emerged," Opinions Also Expressed
[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Young-won] There are voices suggesting the possibility of new variants emerging in North Korea, where COVID-19 is spreading without vaccination. However, some opinions suggest that due to North Korea's closed environment, the COVID-19 situation may end before new variants arise.
Overseas experts have expressed concern about North Korea's situation. Mike Ryan, head of the WHO Emergency Response Team, said, "WHO has repeatedly emphasized that the risk of new variants emerging is higher where the virus spreads uncontrollably." A report from the U.S. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in March also reflected similar concerns. The report stated, "North Korea is one of two countries in the world without a vaccination plan," adding, "Some experts believe that due to low vaccine accessibility and uncertain immunity, it is highly likely to become a source of new variants."
There is also an opinion that the Omicron variant, first discovered in southern Africa, is a result of 'vaccine inequality.' Michael Head, senior global health researcher at the University of Southampton in the UK, told CNN, "The emergence of new variants is a natural consequence of the world’s slow vaccination rollout," and analyzed, "All problematic new variants in the past, such as Alpha and Delta, appeared in places that experienced uncontrolled large-scale outbreaks." At the time Omicron was first discovered in Botswana, an African country, in November last year, the vaccination completion rate was in the 30% range.
In North Korea, more than 200,000 fever patients have been reported daily. According to the Korean Central News Agency, on the 18th, there were 262,270 new fever cases, bringing the cumulative total to approximately 1,978,230. Currently, North Korea is known to diagnose COVID-19 cases based solely on symptoms due to the lack of a proper diagnostic and testing system.
Domestic quarantine authorities are also monitoring the possibility of new variants emerging in North Korea. Lee Sang-won, head of the Epidemiological Investigation and Analysis Division at the Central Disease Control Headquarters, said, "Whether there are variants in North Korea is actually an unknown area," adding, "Although it is unclear what the consequences will be when Omicron spreads widely in places that have never encountered COVID-19, it is certainly necessary to pay close attention."
On the other hand, there are opinions that although COVID-19 damage may be severe in North Korea due to lack of vaccination, the possibility of variant emergence is not high because of the closed environment. Baek Soon-young, emeritus professor at the Catholic University College of Medicine, said, "Variants can occur when the virus tries to overcome antibodies in vaccinated individuals," adding, "In South Korea, where BA.1 and BA.2 circulated together, the possibility of recombinant variants was higher, but North Korea is a closed country, so there is little need to worry greatly about variant emergence."
Professor Baek explained that North Korea and African regions cannot be compared equally. He said, "Those regions have a special situation with many immunodeficient (HIV) patients," adding, "Immunodeficient patients do not produce antibodies well, so the virus stays longer in the body and replicates, increasing the likelihood of variant strains emerging."
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