Obama Considered Preemptive Strike During North Korea's Nuclear Test

In March 2012, President Obama visiting the DMZ (Photo by Asia Economy DB)

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] Attention is focused on whether North Korea will conduct a nuclear test during President Joe Biden's visit. In fact, North Korea carried out its 5th nuclear test on September 9, 2016, immediately after former President Barack Obama returned from attending the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Laos, prompting calls to review the situation at that time.

According to intelligence authorities on the 19th, North Korea has recently been conducting tunnel excavation work at Punggye-ri. In 2018, North Korea blew up the entrance to the underground nuclear test site at Punggye-ri, but it has recently been confirmed that tunnels have been dug below the entrance, connecting to the main tunnels.

When North Korea conducted its 5th nuclear test, it is known that a preemptive strike plan against North Korea was proposed to former U.S. President Barack Obama.

Bob Woodward, deputy editor of The Washington Post (WP), described the situation in his book Fear: Trump in the White House, stating that after North Korea's 5th nuclear test, "Despite a strong hope to avoid war, Obama decided it was time to consider whether the North Korean nuclear threat could be eliminated through a precise (surgical) military strike."

At that time, President Obama also approved the highly classified operation called the 'Special Access Programs' to intercept North Korean missiles. The Special Access Programs include cyberattacks targeting North Korean missile units and control systems, as well as operations to detect missiles launched from North Korea within seven seconds.

Following this, James Clapper, Director of National Intelligence (DNI), warned about North Korea's nuclear threat, and the U.S. Department of Defense reportedly recommended deploying ground forces as a method to completely eliminate North Korea's nuclear program. Additionally, Bob Woodward claimed in his book that John Brennan, then Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), led considerations of the so-called 'man change' (leader replacement) to remove Chairman Kim Jong-un. At that time, the CIA's North Korea group reviewed airstrike operations against Kim Jong-un, and the U.S. Air Force conducted sophisticated simulations in Ozarks, Missouri, which has terrain similar to North Korea.

Some speculate that North Korea, facing the spread of COVID-19, might delay additional test launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) or nuclear tests to prevent the spread of infection.

On the 18th (local time), NBC analyzed, "Since weapons tests involve many people gathering, Kim Jong-un (Chairman of North Korea) might postpone additional launches until the infection subsides to slow virus transmission."

However, NBC also reported remarks from Christopher Green, senior consultant for the Korean Peninsula at the International Crisis Group, stating that North Korea tends to act more aggressively when internally unstable, so weapons tests may continue. Green warned that the COVID-19 outbreak is a 'black swan' event that could change Kim Jong-un's calculations. A black swan refers to an event that is extremely unlikely and difficult to predict but causes tremendous shock if it occurs.