Three Instances of Approval Rating Gaps Beyond the Margin of Error
(Photo from left) Kim Jin-tae, People Power Party candidate, and Lee Kwang-jae, Democratic Party candidate [Candidate Election Camp]
[Asia Economy Reporter Ra Young-cheol] As of the 15th, with 17 days remaining until the June 1 local elections, in the opinion polls for the Gangwon Province governor candidates, Kim Jin-tae of the People Power Party has consistently led his main opponent, Lee Kwang-jae of the Democratic Party, since passing the party primary last month.
According to a poll conducted by the polling firm Metrics on the 13th and 14th among 800 Gangwon voters commissioned by Maeil Business Newspaper and MBN, Kim Jin-tae received 49.1% support, while Lee Kwang-jae garnered only 37.6%.
The gap between the two candidates is 11.5 percentage points. Kim received overwhelming support from those aged 50 and above, while Lee led among voters aged 40 and below.
The most urgent local issues to be addressed were expanding job opportunities at 25.5%, expanding welfare at 14.4%, and revitalizing the cultural tourism industry at 14%.
This survey was conducted entirely via wireless telephone interviews. The response rate was 15.1%, and the margin of error was ±3.47 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.
For more details, please refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.
Meanwhile, Kim’s support rate has led in several polls since the People Power Party primary on the 23rd of last month.
A poll conducted by Chuncheon MBC, MBC Gangwon Yeongdong, and Wonju MBC, commissioned to Realmeter, surveyed 812 Gangwon residents aged 18 and older on the 5th and 6th of this month (margin of error ±3.4 percentage points at 95% confidence level), showing Kim Jin-tae at 46.9% and Lee Kwang-jae at 43.6%.
The difference between the two candidates was 3.3 percentage points, within the margin of error, indicating a close race. The rest were 4.5% undecided, 2.9% no preference, and 2.0% other candidates.
A poll commissioned by Gangwon Ilbo to Realmeter surveyed 1,012 men and women aged 18 and older residing in Gangwon Province over two days, the 28th and 29th of last month. The results (margin of error ±3.1 percentage points at 95% confidence level) showed Kim Jin-tae at 46.7%, leading Lee Kwang-jae’s 38.2% by 8.5 percentage points, outside the margin of error.
Other candidates accounted for 1.9%, and the undecided group was 13.2% (no preference 9.3%, don’t know 3.9%).
In a poll conducted by Realmeter commissioned by MBN on the 25th and 26th of last month among 805 Gangwon residents aged 18 and older, Kim Jin-tae received 48.8%, and Lee Kwang-jae 41.0%. The gap of 7.8 percentage points was outside the margin of error (±3.5 percentage points at 95% confidence level).
Following were 4.2% undecided, 3.3% no preference, and 2.7% other candidates.
Kim Jin-tae, who led in all four polls, was ahead of Lee Kwang-jae by a margin outside the margin of error in three of them.
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