"China: 1.6 Million Deaths Expected from Omicron Variant Between May and July if Zero-COVID Policy Withdrawn"

Shanghai Fudan University - Research Results Published in Nature
120 million Infected and 1.6 million Deaths Expected Among Elderly and Others
Maximum Bed Demand Reaches 1 Million, Raising Concerns Over Shortages

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Hyun-jung] A study has found that if China withdraws its strict COVID-19 control policies and relaxes responses such as not administering antiviral treatments, approximately 1.6 million deaths could occur between May and July this year due to the Omicron variant.

According to the South China Morning Post (SCMP) on the 11th, researchers from Shanghai Fudan University, Indiana University School of Public Health in the U.S., and the U.S. National Institutes of Health published these findings in the international academic journal Nature.

The research team projected that considering the vaccine efficacy and coverage in China, the number of Omicron variant cases, which was only around 20 in March, could spread at a "tsunami" level between May and July. During the same period, they estimated 112 million confirmed cases and expected 2.7 million patients to require intensive care unit (ICU) treatment.

The death toll was projected to reach 1.6 million. The researchers noted that as of mid-March, 51 million elderly people aged 60 and above were not "fully vaccinated," and estimated that about three-quarters (74.7%) of the deaths would be among the elderly. However, assuming the best-case scenario where symptomatic patients are treated with Paxlovid, an oral antiviral drug approved for use in China, ICU admissions and deaths could be reduced by approximately 89%.

To proactively reduce hospitalizations and deaths, they suggested increasing the vaccination rate among the elderly to 97% and actively treating patients with antiviral drugs. The researchers concluded, "In the long term, improving ventilation, strengthening critical care capacity, and developing new highly effective vaccines with durable immunity will be priorities."

Serious concerns about bed shortages were also raised. The researchers predicted, "Even though the first-dose vaccination rate is over 90% and the homologous booster shot rate exceeds 40% as of March, if Omicron outbreaks continue, China's healthcare system will suffer significant ICU shortages." They further estimated that the maximum ICU demand could reach 1 million beds, nearly 16 times the existing total of 64,000 beds, resulting in a shortage lasting about 44 days.

Meanwhile, China is facing its worst COVID-19 prevention situation since the initial outbreak in Wuhan in 2020. Most cases have been confirmed in Shanghai, and the researchers used mathematical models based on Shanghai data to simulate a hypothetical Omicron wave, producing these research results.