[So Jong-seop's Political Analysis] The Waning Moon Jae-in Era, The Emerging Yoon Seok-youl Era

The Moon Jae-in Era Maximized Factional Conflict, Yoon Seok-yeol Era Faces Layered Challenges

On the 9th, citizens at the Seoul Station waiting room are watching the farewell speech of President Moon Jae-in, which contains his reflections during his term and a message to the public. Photo by Moon Honam munonam@

[Asia Economy, So Jong-seop, Political and Social Editor] The moment of cheers was brief, and the time of conflict was long. The 'Candlelight Government,' born from the ruins of the 'Park Geun-hye administration,' is handing over power after five years. It is an irony of history. The institutionalization of reforms, integration, and cooperation demanded by the 'Candlelight Revolution' were not achieved.

President Moon Jae-in is stepping down today after completing his five-year term. The start was unstoppable. The support rate exceeding 80% in the early days of his term is proof. The scene of the North and South Korean leaders meeting on the footbridge at Panmunjom was imprinted as a powerful image on the entire nation. However, the inter-Korean relations, which began to retreat after the Singapore summit in June 2018, have returned to the state of five years ago.

The failure of 25 real estate policies caused public discontent to the extent that President Moon lamented, "I have nothing to say." The discontent of the wealthy and the less fortunate alike accumulated. Power was cornered. If real estate was the fuel, the 'Cho Kuk incident,' which divided the people into two, was the spark. Criticism of 'double standards' poured in. The gap between large corporations and small and medium enterprises, and polarization widened further. Amid this, there was little room for COVID-19 response and economic growth at the 4% level. The approval rating of over 40% near the end of his term faded with the defeat in the presidential election. The era of Moon Jae-in, which maximized factional confrontation, ends this way.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Is the beginning of the Yoon Seok-youl era lively? No. It is gloomy. It is a steep mountain to climb. The triple high of high inflation, high interest rates, and high exchange rates is weighing down the Korean economy. There is a strong prospect that the economic recession is becoming full-fledged. The world has entered a new Cold War triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The economic and security environment surrounding us is changing significantly. The lack of many policy levers is an additional concern. What about the political environment? In a situation where the ruling party is in the minority in the National Assembly, it is difficult to secure the momentum to vigorously push policies. The driving force for reform must rely on public sentiment, but support for President-elect Yoon hovers around 50%. The first cabinet nominees are embroiled in various suspicions and are full of wounds. There is no leadership visible to navigate the crisis and unite the people's hearts. Therefore, the era of Yoon Seok-youl is symbolized by 'uncertainty.'