[Global Issues+] 'Rasputicha' Emerging as a Key Variable in the Ukraine War

Mud that Foiled Napoleon and Hitler's Russian Campaigns
Donbas Enters Rainy Season, Making It Difficult for Russia to Maintain Supply Lines

On the 17th (local time), a Ukrainian soldier discovered a Russian T-72 tank stuck in the mud while advancing in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. Donbas (Ukraine) = Reuters·Yonhap News

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] Russia has declared a large-scale offensive in the Donbas region of Ukraine, but the slower-than-expected advance of Russian forces has drawn attention to the underlying reasons. The Donbas region is a flat terrain without mountain ranges or major cities, so the initial expectation was that Russian tanks would advance rapidly, but this prediction has proven incorrect.

What is hindering the Russian army is the so-called 'Rasputitsa,' a muddy quagmire in Ukraine. Every April, during spring, the ground that was frozen throughout the winter thaws, creating vast muddy fields where Russian tanks and military vehicles are reportedly getting stuck.

According to the British BBC on the 23rd (local time), the UK Defence Intelligence Agency stated in a report that "despite the Russian army launching a large-scale offensive in Donbas, there has been little change on the front lines over the past 24 hours," adding, "The pace of the Russian advance has slowed significantly, allowing Ukrainian forces time to resist and counterattack."

Rasputitsa that Frustrated Both Napoleon and Hitler

Nazi German soldiers extracting vehicles trapped in the Rasputitsa during the invasion of Russia in October 1941. [Image source=German Federal Archives]

According to The New York Times (NYT), Rasputitsa, which mainly occurs in Russia and Ukraine, happens in large quantities especially in April. Fully paved highways and major arterial roads are not significantly affected, but unpaved roads and general flatlands become muddy to the point where vehicle passage is completely impossible.

Experts analyze that tanks and armored vehicles, which are much heavier than regular vehicles, find it extremely difficult to pass through Rasputitsa. Sam Cranny-Evans, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a British think tank, told CNBC in an interview, "To rapidly move large forces, tanks and armored vehicles must advance on unpaved roads rather than main roads, but when such heavy vehicles move together, they easily get stuck in Rasputitsa," adding, "Since major roads and railways are already defended by Ukrainian forces, Russian operations are inevitably limited."

Historically, the major reason for the failures of Napoleon's 1812 Russian campaign and Adolf Hitler's 1941 Russian offensive is also attributed to Rasputitsa. Napoleon's main force, the artillery, slowed down significantly, limiting the advance speed and leading to defeat due to food shortages. The Nazi German army also suffered massive losses and defeat as tanks and armored vehicles got stuck in the mud, forcing them to abandon most combat vehicles.

The Problem is the Heavy Rain Starting in Autumn... Damage Expected to Worsen

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

If the war prolongs, there are concerns that the Russian army will face an even more severe autumn Rasputitsa, which is incomparable to the spring one. The vast plains of Russia and Ukraine experience a rainy season starting in September, bringing heavy downpours that make it difficult even for small passenger cars to pass.

As a result, it is pointed out that the Russian army is rushing its operations as much as possible. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) stated in a report on the same day, "The Russian forces that besieged Mariupol moved north immediately to attack Donbas without rest," criticizing that "the advance speed is increasing without proper unit redeployment and securing supply lines." The Russian army is aware that delays in operations will put them at a greater disadvantage, so they are hurrying their advance.

Moreover, with Russia's Victory Day on the 9th of next month, it is expected that the Russian army will rush to complete most operations by then, raising concerns that indiscriminate airstrikes targeting both soldiers and civilians will continue.