US-ROK Joint Military Exercises Start Tomorrow... North Korea Provokes Again

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] The first half of the year ROK-US joint military exercises will begin on the 18th. The key points to watch are whether North Korea will carry out additional military provocations under the pretext of this year's first half Combined Command Post Training (CCPT), and whether the timing of the Future Combined Forces Command's Full Operational Capability (FOC) evaluation for the transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON) will be reconsidered, given that this is the last joint exercise conducted under the Moon Jae-in administration.

On the 17th, a military official stated that following the preliminary exercise called the 'Crisis Management Staff Training' (CMST) held from the 12th to the 15th, the main exercise, the first half Combined Command Post Training (CCPT), will be conducted from the 18th to the 28th.

While the Crisis Management Staff Training simulates sudden crisis situations before the outbreak of war, the main exercise is a computer simulation-based command post exercise (CPX) conducted based on scenarios such as defense (Part 1) and counterattack (Part 2) assuming the outbreak of war.

On the same day, North Korea announced that Chairman Kim Jong-un observed the test launch of a 'new tactical guided weapon.' The new tactical guided weapon is presumed to be a partially upgraded version of the 'North Korean version of ATACMS' (KN-24).

Particularly, attention is drawn to the fact that this coincides with the '90th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People's Revolutionary Army (Anti-Japanese Guerrilla Force)' (April 25), for which North Korea is expected to hold a military parade. Although the Armed Forces Day was changed to February 8 starting in 2018, this year marks the 90th anniversary of the Anti-Japanese Guerrilla Force's founding, a 'jeongjun' (a milestone year occurring every 5 or 10 years), leading to speculation that North Korea will send military messages through the parade.

Especially, the military and intelligence authorities are paying close attention to the possibility that the parade will showcase new intermediate- and short-range ballistic missiles equipped with new warheads, which are presumed to be capable of carrying new multiple warheads or small nuclear warheads.

Meanwhile, in the past, South Korea and the US generally notified North Korea of the exercise schedule and nature via a direct hotline between the North Korean military and the United Nations Command just before the start. However, this time it is unlikely to do so. In 2016 and 2017, the ROK-US Combined Forces Command notified the North side of the exercise schedule and purpose on the day of the announcement through loudspeakers at Panmunjom via the UN Command Military Armistice Commission. There is interest in whether such 'loudspeaker notification' will be carried out this time as well.