FAO Special Board: "Russia-Ukraine Wheat Export Forecast from March to June Likely Below Expectations"

[Asia Economy Sejong=Reporter Kim Hyewon] The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has predicted that the export volume of wheat from Russia and Ukraine will fall short of initial forecasts. It also pointed out the need for alternative measures such as seeking substitute import countries for nations highly dependent on food and fertilizers from these two countries.

The Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs announced on the 11th that it participated via video in the 169th UN FAO Special Board of Directors meeting held on the 8th, where these discussions took place.

This board meeting was convened at the request of member states due to the worsening global food insecurity caused by the Ukraine crisis. About 450 people, including representatives from 49 member states, observer countries, and international organizations, attended both in person and online.

According to the FAO, as of last year, Russia and Ukraine accounted for about 30% of the global wheat market. More than 50 countries import at least 30% of their wheat from these two countries, and among them, 26 countries import more than half of their required wheat.

The FAO stated, "Even before the war, the poorest developing countries and low-income food-deficit countries, which were negatively affected by high prices of food and fertilizers, are in an even more vulnerable situation due to their high dependence on food and fertilizers from Russia and Ukraine." It added, "Countries in North Africa and Central and Western Asia have a high dependence on wheat from Russia and Ukraine, so it is necessary to prepare alternative measures such as seeking substitute import countries." Eritrea, often called the North Korea of Africa, imports all its wheat from Russia (53%) and Ukraine (47%).

The FAO initially projected wheat exports from March to June this year to be 8 million tons from Russia and 6 million tons from Ukraine. However, considering the closure of ports in Ukraine, disruptions in harvesting and sowing, and difficulties in Russian exports, it is unlikely that the initial export volumes will be realized.

Member states expressed serious concern over the worsening food insecurity caused by conflicts in the most critical regions for global agricultural supply, especially as millions are already experiencing hunger or severe food insecurity. They supported FAO’s humanitarian responses and efforts, including food security and agricultural livelihood support within Ukraine.

The member states emphasized that the FAO should respond to global food security through cooperation with Rome-based UN agencies such as the World Food Programme (WFP), the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), and international financial institutions. They also requested continuous and close monitoring of the impact of the Ukraine crisis on global food security and agriculture.

The Korean delegation conveyed that since this crisis has a greater impact on low-income and food-vulnerable countries, practical solutions to food issues must be found from a humanitarian perspective. They also expressed their intention to further strengthen cooperation with the international community through food aid and official development assistance.