How Will the June 1 Seoul Mayor and District Mayor Elections Turn Out?

With 50 Days Left Until the 8th Local Election, Ruling and Opposition Parties Accelerate Selection of Seoul Mayor and District Mayor Candidates, Raising Public Interest in Local Elections as Another National Evaluation Following the Presidential Election

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Jong-il] The 8th local elections under the direct election system are just 50 days away.

Major parties such as the Democratic Party and the People Power Party are showing swift movements, entering the screening process to nominate candidates for Seoul mayor and district heads.

Each party is expected to finalize candidates for Seoul mayor and district heads by mid to late this month.

◇This Local Election Held 20 Days After the Inauguration of the Yoon Suk-yeol Government

The June 1 local elections are nationwide local elections held just 20 days after the inauguration of the Yoon Suk-yeol government (May 10).

This local election will be the second judgment following the presidential election, which was the first judgment on the current government. Accordingly, this election is unlikely to deviate significantly from the flow of the presidential election.

Moreover, with the Yoon government launching with major agendas such as opening the Blue House and relocating to Yongsan, the elections for Seoul mayor and district heads are likely to be held in a favorable environment for the People Power Party.

In particular, the People Power Party won in Seoul during the last presidential election (winning 14 out of 25 autonomous districts, while the Democratic Party won 11), so this local election is expected to follow a similar trend.

Experts predict that the People Power Party will win the Seoul mayor and district head elections this time.

The People Power Party currently has incumbent Mayor Oh Se-hoon holding his position, while the Democratic Party is still facing internal conflicts following the emergence of former leader Song Young-gil.

Because of this, barring any major surprises, the People Power Party is expected to secure more autonomous districts in the 25 district head elections in Seoul than in the presidential election. In the last presidential election, the Democratic Party won 11 out of 25 autonomous districts, but many of those victories were by narrow margins of 1-2%, making it difficult to guarantee success in the local elections. The Democratic Party narrowly won in districts such as Nowon, Dobong, Gangbuk, Jungnang, Seongbuk, Eunpyeong, Geumcheon, Guro, and Gwanak.

A Seoul city autonomous district official predicted, “Since this election is held after the presidential election, a victory for the People Power Party is anticipated.”

However, a Democratic Party Seoul district head preliminary candidate expressed a somewhat hopeful view, stating, “The Democratic Party plans to secure 10 autonomous districts by utilizing the organizational strength built over the past 12 years.”

Nevertheless, the local elections for mayor, district heads, and city councilors tend to exhibit a strong ‘straight-ticket voting phenomenon,’ where voters select the same number for all positions, making it highly likely that the party winning the mayoral race will also secure district heads and city councilors.

◇The Issue: Candidate Competitiveness?

The issue is that the election results for district heads could vary depending on how competitive the candidates are.

In Seoul local elections, the Democratic Party has had a strong candidate pool, having won for 12 years from the 5th direct election term in 2010 through the 6th and 7th terms.

In contrast, the People Power Party has lost local power in Seoul for 12 years, making both its organization and candidate pool relatively weak.

For this reason, it is difficult to guarantee victories in most autonomous districts except for the four Gangnam area districts of Gangnam, Seocho, Songpa, and Gangdong; the four Han River-side districts of Mapo, Yongsan, Seongdong, and Gwangjin; and Yeongdeungpo, Yangcheon, Dongjak, and Dongdaemun districts.

For these reasons, the People Power Party is expected to nominate more competitive district head candidates through strategic nominations even in relatively weak autonomous districts.

◇Will the Political Sphere’s So-called ‘Geom-su-wan-bak’ (Complete Removal of Prosecutors’ Investigation Rights) Become a Variable in the Local Elections?

The Democratic Party suddenly pushed for a legal amendment to completely remove the prosecution’s investigation rights before the inauguration of the Yoon Suk-yeol government, causing strong backlash from the prosecution and turning this issue into a core political variable.

Accordingly, how the moderate voters in Seoul view this situation is expected to have a significant impact on this local election, drawing close attention.