"Russian Nuclear Submarine Leaves Port"...Tense US Orders Full Reconnaissance Satellite Deployment [Science Insights]

New York Times Reports Chaos Following Putin's Nuclear Attack Threat
US Government Strengthens Surveillance Using Public and Private Satellites
Experts Analyze as 'Routine Training,' No Signs of Attack Yet

On March 7, a satellite from the U.S. private satellite company Planet Labs captured an image of the Northern Fleet submarine base located in the Gadzhiyevo area of Russia. Photo by Planet Labs.

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Bong-su] Since Russian President Putin invaded Ukraine at the end of February and hinted at the possibility of using nuclear weapons, the United States has mobilized hundreds of civilian and public reconnaissance and surveillance assets to monitor the situation. However, no clear signs have yet been detected.

According to the New York Times on the 9th, after President Putin declared that Russia's nuclear forces would enter a 'special combat readiness' at the end of February, the U.S. significantly intensified surveillance by deploying hundreds of federal government and civilian reconnaissance and surveillance satellites to detect signs of nuclear weapon use by Russia. This includes Russian bombers, missiles, submarines, as well as bunkers storing thousands of nuclear weapons.

Officials from the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) have not yet found evidence that Russia is actually preparing for nuclear war. In this regard, Jake Sullivan, U.S. White House National Security Advisor, reported to President Joe Biden that "we still have no evidence that would require changing nuclear readiness postures."

However, U.S. nuclear weapons monitoring experts argue that tensions should not be relaxed nor surveillance eased. This is because Russia has a history of occasionally using tactical nuclear weapons to compensate for weaknesses in conventional forces, and if President Putin is ultimately defeated in Ukraine, he might do anything to restore his 'ruthless' reputation.

If Russia is preparing for a nuclear attack, the first expected sign would be the dispersal of strategic bombers carrying nuclear bombs and the deployment of nuclear submarines from ports to conceal them. This is a precaution against possible U.S. strikes. The U.S. is currently making every effort to detect such signs in advance through hundreds of public and civilian satellites launched into space. The U.S. is determined not to repeat the critical mistake made in 1962 when the former Soviet Union secretly transported 158 nuclear warheads and missiles to Cuba, right off the U.S. coast, without detection.

However, the number of nuclear warheads and various missile delivery systems that Russia possesses is so large that it exceeds the combined total of all countries except the U.S., making it difficult to accurately track their movements. The U.S. government is actively cooperating with private Earth observation satellite companies such as Maxar, Capella Space, and Planet Labs to establish a close monitoring network. Planet Labs alone owns over 200 imaging satellites and has already been cooperating with the U.S. government and military sectors.

Mark Lowenthal, former Deputy Director for Intelligence Analysis at the CIA, told the NYT, "Private satellites have been tracking not only the routine training and exercises of Russia's nuclear weapons and responsible units but also maintenance activities long before the Ukraine war broke out," adding, "This activity provides foundational knowledge that will help determine whether Russia is actually preparing for nuclear war."

A representative example is the commotion related to Russian submarines that occurred immediately after President Putin's 'nuclear weapon use' threat at the end of February. A Twitter user posted two satellite images showing Russian nuclear submarines departing from a port. The British tabloid The Express ran an article titled "(Strategic Preparations) Are Underway," which briefly heightened the nuclear war crisis. However, experts knew that the submarine departure was part of an annual regular training exercise, and the commotion soon subsided.

In fact, a photo taken on the 7th of last month of the Russian Northern Fleet's submarine base at Gadzhiyevo shows all four operational submarines docked at the pier, with no signs of preparing for a nuclear attack.

The New York Times quoted an expert saying, "If (Russia) were to increase its nuclear attack readiness, some submarines would be out at sea," and "The fact that all combat-ready submarines are in port suggests that they are not preparing for a nuclear attack."