[AKyeong Poll] Oh Se-hoon Leads Significantly in Virtual 'Return Match' Against Park Young-sun

Seoul Mayor Two-Candidate Virtual Matchup, Oh Se-hoon 49.9% vs Park Young-sun 37.6%

[Asia Economy Reporter Kwon Hyun-ji] In the upcoming Seoul mayoral election this June, if former Minister of SMEs and Startups Park Young-sun and current Mayor Oh Se-hoon face off, Mayor Oh is projected to lead former Minister Park by a margin beyond the margin of error.

On the 6th, Asia Economy commissioned Realmeter to conduct a public opinion poll from June 4 to 5 targeting 1,015 men and women aged 18 and older residing in Seoul (90% mobile, 10% landline, automated response). The results showed Mayor Oh with a support rate of 49.9%, while former Minister Park received 37.6%. The gap between the two candidates’ support rates was 12.3 percentage points, which is outside the margin of error. This is closely related to the ruling People Power Party’s victory in the March 9 presidential election this year, signaling a green light for Mayor Oh’s bid for a fourth term as Seoul mayor.

Former Minister Park showed strong support among people in their 40s (49.2%) and 30s (42.2%), women (41.3%), and supporters of the Democratic Party of Korea (73.7%). Mayor Oh led among those aged 60 and above (61.5%), supporters of the People Power Party (91.4%), supporters of the People’s Party (85.0%), and the politically unaffiliated (57.2%).

By region, former Minister Park was strongest in the Gangbuk West area (Mapo-gu, Seodaemun-gu, Yongsan-gu, Eunpyeong-gu, Jongno-gu, Jung-gu) with a support rate of 42.9%, which was 3.3 percentage points lower than Mayor Oh’s 46.2%. In the other regions?Gangbuk East (Gangbuk-gu, Gwangjin-gu, Nowon-gu, Dobong-gu, Dongdaemun-gu, Seongdong-gu, Seongbuk-gu, Jungnang-gu), Gangnam West (Gangseo-gu, Gwanak-gu, Guro-gu, Geumcheon-gu, Dongjak-gu, Yangcheon-gu, Yeongdeungpo-gu), and Gangnam East (Songpa-gu, Gangnam-gu, Seocho-gu, Gangdong-gu)?Mayor Oh led with 48.0%, 49.9%, and 55.7% respectively, ahead of former Minister Park’s 37.0%, 36.7%, and 35.6%.

In last year’s by-election, Mayor Oh won with 57.5% of the vote, defeating former Minister Park who received 39.18%, by a margin of 18.32 percentage points. Besides the Seoul mayoral race, former Minister Park is also being considered as a candidate for the Governor of Gyeongnam Province and has stated that she will decide on her candidacy soon.

The proportion of respondents supporting other candidates was 4.8%, while 4.1% said they had no preferred candidate and 3.6% were unsure, totaling 7.7% of undecided voters.

How the survey was conducted = This survey was commissioned by Asia Economy and conducted by Realmeter over two days, June 4 and 5. Calls were attempted to 80,938 eligible voters aged 18 and older residing in Seoul, with a final 1,015 respondents completing the survey, yielding a response rate of 1.3%. The survey used an automated response method with 90% mobile and 10% landline calls, employing random digit dialing from a randomly generated sampling frame. Statistical adjustments were made using rim weighting based on gender, age group, and region according to the Ministry of the Interior and Safety’s resident registration population statistics as of the end of March 2022. The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, please refer to the Realmeter website or the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.