[AKyeong Poll] 48.7% vs 48%... 'Yoon Support' Seoul Public Opinion Narrowly Divided

Positive-Negative Gap Differs by 1%P
Responsibility for Old-New Power Conflict Structure
Yoon 51.6%, Moon 43.5% with 8.1%P Difference Outside Margin of Error

President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol [Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunju Lee] Seoul public opinion on President-elect Yoon Seok-yeol shows a close split between those who ‘support’ and those who ‘do not support’ him.

According to a poll conducted by Realmeter on behalf of Asia Economy from April 4 to 5 targeting 1,015 men and women aged 18 and older residing in Seoul (90% mobile, 10% landline, automated response), 48.7% responded that they support President-elect Yoon. Among them, 36.6% said they ‘strongly support’ and 12.2% said they ‘somewhat support’ him.

On the other hand, 48.0% responded that they do not support President-elect Yoon, showing that the gap between positive and negative opinions is less than 1 percentage point. Specifically, 40.1% said they ‘do not support at all’ and 7.9% said they ‘do not support much.’ Those who were unsure accounted for 3.3%.

During the presidential transition committee period, expectations for the next government tend to be relatively high, but in the case of President-elect Yoon, positive and negative responses are evenly split. Following the razor-thin presidential election, as the local elections phase begins on June 1, it is interpreted that the consolidation of support bases for both major parties has become stronger. In this survey, 92.4% of People Power Party supporters said they support President-elect Yoon, while 91.0% of Democratic Party supporters said they do not support him. Support for President-elect Yoon was relatively higher in Seoul’s Gangnam eastern districts such as Gangnam, Seocho, and Songpa (52.8%), among those aged 60 and older (60.7%), and among men (53.1%), where he had shown high vote shares during the presidential election.

Regarding the recent formation of a conflict between old and new powers, respondents judged that President-elect Yoon bears greater responsibility. When asked who they think holds more responsibility for the conflict between the current and next governments, 51.6% answered President-elect Yoon, while 43.5% answered President Moon. This 8.1 percentage point difference is outside the margin of error.

※ How the survey was conducted = This survey was commissioned by Asia Economy and conducted by Realmeter over two days, April 4 and 5. Calls were attempted to 80,938 eligible voters aged 18 and older residing in Seoul, with a final 1,015 respondents completing the survey, resulting in a response rate of 1.3%. The survey used a random digit dialing method with 90% mobile and 10% landline automated response. Statistical adjustments were made using rim weighting by gender, age group, and region based on the resident registration population statistics from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety as of the end of March 2022. The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, please refer to the Realmeter website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.