[AKYUNG Poll] Gyeonggi Province Governor, Economic Expert vs Economic Expert... Focus on 'Personality' Over Political Party

Gyeonggi Province Governor Election Becomes Mini Presidential Race
Yoo Seung-min, Kim Dong-yeon Lead in Suitability Ratings

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] In the June 1 local elections for Gyeonggi Province governor, the 'personality factor' is expected to exert significant influence. Voters anticipate that Kim Dong-yeon, former Deputy Prime Minister and a leading economic expert from the Democratic Party, and Yoo Seung-min, former People Power Party (PPP) lawmaker and a prominent economic figure, will form the frontrunners among the gubernatorial candidates from both major parties.

According to a poll conducted by Realmeter on behalf of Asia Economy from May 1 to 2, surveying 1,009 men and women aged 18 and over residing in Gyeonggi Province (90% mobile, 10% landline, automated response), Yoo Seung-min (23.3%) and Kim Dong-yeon (19.8%) ranked first and second respectively in suitability as the next Gyeonggi Province governor candidates from both parties. Compared to former lawmaker Yoon Hee-sook who ranked third with 10.6%, and former Suwon Mayor Yeom Tae-young who ranked fourth with 9.4%, the gap is relatively large.

Both Yoo and Kim share the commonality of being heavyweight politicians who previously ran in the last presidential election. Kim, a former Ministry of Strategy and Finance official with extensive experience in economic affairs, and Yoo, a former Korea Development Institute (KDI) researcher and ruling party floor leader, have broad experience not only in economics but also in overall government administration, making them figures expected to play significant roles in the next presidential election. However, since both candidates had deliberated extensively about running, the high public attention may have partially influenced their support ratings. Yoo had considered retiring from politics, and Kim was rumored to run for Seoul mayor.

Kim Dong-yeon, leader of the New Wave, is declaring his candidacy for the Gyeonggi Province governor in the June 1 local elections at the National Assembly Communication Hall on the 31st. Photo by Yoon Dong-ju doso7@

The strength of the personality factor was confirmed in hypothetical one-on-one matchups. Kim Dong-yeon led Kim Eun-hye, spokesperson for President-elect, with 41.8% support to Kim Eun-hye's 28.6%, surpassing her beyond the margin of error. Yoo Seung-min also defeated Democratic Party lawmaker Ahn Min-seok in a hypothetical contest, gaining 43.4% support compared to Ahn's 28.4%. Yoo showed a similar lead over former Mayor Yeom Tae-young with 43.0% to 23.2%. This pattern differs somewhat from party support trends. In Gyeonggi Province, the Democratic Party's support rate was 41.6%, and the People Power Party's was 40.1%. This indicates that a significant number of voters may choose the governor based on personality rather than party affiliation.

Former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min is holding an official press conference to announce his candidacy for the Gyeonggi Province governor in the June 1 local elections at the National Assembly Communication Office on the 31st. Photo by Yoon Dong-joo doso7@

Noteworthy is the head-to-head matchup between Yoo Seung-min and Kim Dong-yeon. In this hypothetical contest, Yoo received 37.6% support and Kim 36.0%, showing a close race. Although within the margin of error, Yoo holds a slight edge. A distinctive feature is that both candidates consolidated support from their respective bases. Kim led among voters in their 50s (43.5%) and 40s (41.9%), demographics where the Democratic Party is strong. Yoo consolidated support among those in their 30s (44.0%), ages 18-29 (43.6%), and those aged 60 and above (41.6%).

Regionally, Kim Dong-yeon led in the southern area (Suwon, Yongin, Anyang, etc.) with 38.1% support, ahead of Yoo's 37.0%. In the southwestern area (Hwaseong, Bucheon, Ansan, etc.), eastern area (Seongnam, Namyangju, Gwangju, etc.), and northern area (Goyang, Gimpo, Paju, etc.), Yoo Seung-min held advantageous positions with 38.6%, 37.1%, and 37.6% support respectively, surpassing Kim's 37.5%, 33.9%, and 33.7% in those regions.

How the survey was conducted= This survey was commissioned by Asia Economy and conducted by Realmeter from April 1 (Friday) to April 2 (Saturday). Calls were attempted to 77,535 eligible voters aged 18 and over in Gyeonggi Province, with a final 1,009 respondents completing the survey, yielding a response rate of 1.3%. The survey used a 90% mobile and 10% landline automated response method, employing random digit dialing from a randomly generated sampling frame. Statistical adjustments were made using rim weighting based on gender, age group, and region according to the Ministry of the Interior and Safety's resident registration population statistics as of the end of February 2022. The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey methodology, refer to the Realmeter website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.