[AKYUNG Poll] Gyeonggi Province Governor Hypothetical Duel Kim Dong-yeon 36.0% vs Yoo Seung-min 37.6% Close Race... Yoo Seung-min Leads by 1.6%p

Higher Possibility of Personality Dynamics Over Political Parties

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] A hypothetical matchup result has emerged showing that former Deputy Prime Minister Kim Dong-yeon and former People Power Party lawmaker Yoo Seung-min are expected to fiercely compete for the Gyeonggi Province governor seat, considered the biggest battleground in the upcoming June 1 local elections. Although the party primaries have yet to be held, there is growing emphasis on the election being driven more by individual candidates than by party lines.

Former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min is holding an official press conference to announce his candidacy for the Gyeonggi Province governor in the June 1 local elections at the National Assembly Communication Office on the 31st. Photo by Dongju Yoon doso7@

According to a public opinion poll commissioned by Asia Economy to Realmeter, conducted on April 1-2 among 1,009 men and women aged 18 and older in Gyeonggi Province (using an automated phone survey method with 90% mobile and 10% landline), in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup between former Deputy Prime Minister Kim and former lawmaker Yoo, Yoo received 37.6% support, narrowly leading Kim who received 36.0%, within the margin of error.

This survey asked respondents who they would vote for if Kim and Yoo were respectively selected as the Democratic Party and People Power Party candidates for Gyeonggi Province governor. The gap between the two candidates’ support rates was only 1.6 percentage points. Responses indicating support for other candidates were 12.5%, no preference was 8.5%, and unsure was 5.4%.

In another poll listing multiple candidates from both ruling and opposition parties and asking who would best perform as Gyeonggi Province governor, Yoo led with 23.3%, followed by Kim at 19.8%. Next were former People Power Party lawmaker Yoon Hee-sook (10.6%), former Suwon Mayor Yeom Tae-young (9.4%), Democratic Party lawmaker Ahn Min-seok (9.1%), People Power Party lawmaker Kim Eun-hye (8.1%), former National Assembly Deputy Speaker Shim Jae-chul (4.4%), former Democratic Party lawmaker Choi Jae-sung (2.8%), and Democratic Party lawmaker Jo Jung-sik (2.6%).

Kim Dong-yeon, leader of Saerounmulgyeol, is declaring his candidacy for the Gyeonggi Province governor in the June 1 local elections at the National Assembly Communication Hall on the 31st. Photo by Yoon Dong-joo doso7@

Among Democratic Party primary candidates, Kim led with 28.9%, followed by Ahn (13.2%), Yeom (10.4%), Choi (5.4%), and Jo (4.5%). In the People Power Party, Yoo topped with 38.2%, followed by Yoon (10.8%), Kim (10.1%), and Shim (6.4%).

The margin of error for this poll is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey methodology, please refer to the Realmeter or Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission websites.

▶ How was the survey conducted?= This survey was commissioned by Asia Economy and conducted by Realmeter from April 1 (Friday) to April 2 (Saturday). Calls were attempted to 77,535 eligible voters aged 18 and older in Gyeonggi Province, with a final 1,009 respondents completing the survey, yielding a response rate of 1.3%. The survey used an automated response method with 90% mobile and 10% landline calls, employing random digit dialing based on a randomly generated sampling frame. Statistical adjustments were made using rim weighting by gender, age group, and region based on the Ministry of the Interior and Safety’s resident registration population statistics as of late February 2022. The margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, please visit the Realmeter or Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission websites.