[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Jung-yoon] Securities firms are consecutively lowering their expected KOSPI bands for this year.
According to the financial investment industry on the 3rd, since early last month until now, Daishin Securities, Yuanta Securities, Kyobo Securities, and KB Securities have revised their previously announced KOSPI forecasts for this year.
Daishin Securities lowered its range from 2610?3330 to 2500?3180, and Yuanta Securities from 2750?3350 to 2550?3150. Kyobo Securities adjusted downward from 2850?3450 to 2550?3050. KB Securities, which presented a target index rather than a band, lowered its forecast from 3600 to 3250. In terms of adjustment magnitude, the upper end of the index dropped by 150?400 points, and the lower end by 110?300 points compared to previous forecasts.
Kim Hyung-ryeol, Head of the Research Center at Kyobo Securities, explained, "The intensity of inflation exceeded expectations," adding, "We anticipated that inflation risks would gradually ease in the first quarter of this year, based on the US, and that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy would undergo a normalization process of policy rates starting in the second half of the year." He continued, "An unforeseen variable appeared," noting, "Contrary to expectations of rate hikes in the second half, the Fed's policy changes occurred rapidly, and the Russia-Ukraine war issue was also unpredictable."
Kim Seung-hyun, Head of the Research Center at Yuanta Securities, also said, "We lowered the target index due to issues such as the resurgence of COVID-19, rapid inflation, and the war," adding, "In a situation where inflation and tightening are concerning, the war increased existing worries, and on top of that, signs of US-China disputes are additional risk factors."
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