[The Unfolding June 1 Local Elections②] The Key Battleground for Potential Presidential Candidates, Seoul Mayoral Election... Will 'Oh Se-hoon’s Solo Run' Be Broken?

Reluctance to Join Primary Under Oh's Solo Leadership
Na Kyung-won, Oh Shin-hwan, Yoon Hee-sook as Candidate Pool
Song Young-gil Card Rises in Democratic Party
Responsibility for Presidential Defeat a Burden
Choo Mi-ae and Im Jong-seok Also Possible Candidates

Following the narrow victory of the People Power Party in the presidential election, the race for local government heads (local elections) began immediately. This year marks the 8th local election, with candidates from both ruling and opposition parties announcing their bids. Both sides are desperate for victory in this election. The People Power Party, having won the presidential election, is determined to secure the momentum for the newly launched Yoon Seok-yeol administration despite the limitation of a minority in the National Assembly. The Democratic Party of Korea also sees a local election victory as essential to regain public support after the shock of the presidential defeat. In particular, the Democratic Party is highly aware of the crisis, as it won 14 out of 17 metropolitan government seats in the last local elections and cannot afford to lose ground. Asia Economy examines the metropolitan government head race and candidate lineups in a six-part series.

[Asia Economy Reporters Koo Chae-eun, Park Joon-yi, Kwon Hyun-ji] The Seoul mayoral election is regarded as a ‘gateway to potential presidential candidacy.’ With significant authority and budget, it is often called the ‘second presidency,’ and its political symbolism is substantial, leading to fierce competition in every election. Especially since the next government’s launch, who becomes Seoul mayor will influence the national policy-driving force, making the June 1 local elections even more significant. However, the ruling party’s candidate profile remains unclear as the Democratic Party struggles with a shortage of mayoral candidates.

The Seoul political landscape has fluctuated with the mood. Just three years after Park Won-soon of the Democratic Party swept all districts in Seoul with 52.79% of the vote in 2018, Oh Se-hoon of the People Power Party achieved a ‘landslide victory’ by winning a majority in all 25 districts. Mayor Oh secured 57.5% (2,798,788 votes), surpassing Democratic candidate Park Young-sun’s 39.2% (1,907,336 votes). In this year’s presidential election, Yoon Seok-yeol recorded a 50.56% vote share (3,255,747 votes) in Seoul, higher than his nationwide 48.56%. Yoon’s advantage appeared in 14 out of Seoul’s 25 autonomous districts.

Currently, Mayor Oh’s presence is highlighted. He is in the process of consulting with the transition committee on key issues such as the co-living housing pledge, guaranteed income, and early opening of the Sillim and Northeast lines, emphasizing policy continuity and raising expectations for re-election. In a December interview last year, he officially declared his re-election bid, stating, "I will faithfully fulfill my duties with visions and policies that meet citizens’ hopes and demands, repay the great support given during the April 7 by-election, and seek the public’s choice once again."

Effectively, Mayor Oh is running unopposed within the party, as other potential candidates are reluctant to enter the race. However, former lawmakers Na Kyung-won and Oh Shin-hwan, who ran in last year’s Seoul mayoral by-election primary, and former lawmaker Yoon Hee-sook, who chaired the ‘A Republic of Korea to Look Forward to Tomorrow Committee’ in Yoon’s campaign, are mentioned as possible primary contenders.

The Democratic Party is determined to reclaim Seoul. After consecutive defeats in the by-election and presidential election, there is a pragmatic view within the party that ‘losing narrowly is better than losing badly.’ Former Minister of SMEs and Startups Park Young-sun, who lost in last year’s by-election, has hinted at not running, while among current lawmakers, Park Ju-min (Seoul Eunpyeong-gap) is considered a strong candidate for the mayoral race. Park recently resigned as the head of the Eunpyeong-gap district committee; according to party rules, a district committee head must resign at least 120 days before running for local government head. If Park runs for Seoul mayor, it would mark a significant step up following his bid for party leadership.

Former Democratic Party leader Song Young-gil is also strongly mentioned as a candidate. However, the responsibility for the presidential election defeat is seen as a burden within the party. Former Justice Minister Choo Mi-ae and former presidential chief of staff Lim Jong-seok are also mentioned as possible primary candidates. A Democratic Party parliamentary official said, "If the Democratic candidate wins, they will rapidly emerge as a leading presidential contender, but if they lose, it could be a poisoned chalice, so potential candidates are deeply considering their decisions."