One Month Since Ukraine Invasion, Russia Stuck in Quagmire... Defense Budget Also Depleted

Estimated 30,000-40,000 Russian Casualties... 20% of Entire Army Lost
Daily Spending $150-200 Million... Defense Budget Nearly Depleted
US Officially Declares "Russian War Crimes"... NATO Announces Additional Support

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporters Hyunwoo Lee and Byunghui Park] As the Russian invasion of Ukraine surpasses one month, the number of Russian military casualties is estimated to exceed 20% of the total forces, with damages snowballing. In particular, it is analyzed that Russia has already exhausted most of its defense budget just considering the maintenance costs of the ground forces, estimated at about 150,000 to 200,000 troops. It is expected that future war procurement will become even more difficult, leading to a further decline in combat power due to shortages of weapons and equipment.

On the 23rd (local time), the Associated Press (AP) cited a senior official from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) saying, "Since the outbreak of the war, Russian military casualties are estimated to be around 30,000 to 40,000," and "this means more than 20% of the total mobilized Russian forces, estimated at about 150,000 to 200,000, have been lost." The official added, "This estimate is based on the standard calculation that for every one death, there are three wounded, assuming Russian military deaths range between 7,000 and 15,000."

While the Russian military has suffered heavy losses, the Ukrainian forces are reportedly mounting stronger counterattacks. According to CNN, a senior U.S. Department of Defense official stated in a briefing that "Russian forces are stationed 55 km east of Kyiv (Kiyev), which is 35 km further east than the previous day due to Ukrainian counterattacks."

The main reason the Russian military is facing unfavorable conditions and counterattacks is analyzed to be the worsening shortage of weapons and equipment due to difficulties in war procurement. According to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei), the cost of ammunition and military supplies consumed by one Russian soldier per day is estimated at about $1,000. Maintaining the combat capability of the currently mobilized 150,000 to 200,000 troops costs at least $150 million to $200 million (approximately 182.8 billion to 243.8 billion KRW) per day.

Considering that the World Bank (WB) reported Russia's annual defense budget as about $61.7 billion based on 2020 data, it can be concluded that most of the annual defense budget has been exhausted within one month of the war just for maintaining ground forces. Additionally, considering that approximately 1,200 missiles have been fired in airstrikes on major Ukrainian cities and about 800 tanks and armored vehicles have been destroyed, Russia's loss costs are expected to be even greater.

Inside the Russian leadership, confusion is reportedly intensifying as responsibility for the expanding damages is being questioned. Russian military and security expert Andrei Soldatov pointed out in an interview with The New York Times (NYT) that "Sergei Shoigu, Russia's Defense Minister, who was considered a potential successor to President Vladimir Putin, has been removed from his position, and senior intelligence officials have been placed under house arrest."

Meanwhile, the U.S., NATO, and other Western countries plan to provide additional support to Ukraine. They will also send equipment capable of responding to nuclear and chemical weapon attacks. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on the same day, "We plan to send protective equipment that can prepare for chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear attacks, as well as equipment to help respond to cyberterrorism," adding, "We are concerned that Russia might use chemical and biological weapons. The use of chemical weapons would completely change the course of the war and cause tremendous consequences."

On the same day, the U.S. government officially declared Russia's attacks on civilians as war crimes. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated in a released statement, "Based on currently available information, the U.S. government can declare that Russian forces have committed war crimes in Ukraine," criticizing, "Russian forces have attacked schools, hospitals, and civilian ambulances, causing thousands of innocent civilians to be killed or injured."

The U.S. and the European Union (EU) will consecutively hold the EU summit, NATO summit, and Group of Seven (G7) summit on the 24th, coinciding with U.S. President Joe Biden's visit to Europe.