Starlink 'Rising' in the Ukraine War...The Bright and Dark Sides of the Small Satellite Era [Reading Science]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Bong-su] On the 24th of last month, Ukraine, which was invaded by Russia, requested help from American billionaire Elon Musk's space company SpaceX. With the ground network destroyed and the internet paralyzed, they asked for the activation of Starlink satellite internet to restore connectivity. Musk readily agreed and activated the satellite network over Ukraine starting on the 28th of the same month, then supplied antenna terminals to Ukraine. Although SpaceX's Starlink satellite internet had been in pilot service since 2020, starting in North America, it had been barely noticeable until now. This event solidified its global status. It was also the moment confirming the dawn of the era of small satellite constellations (mega constellations) for humanity. While it is seen as a "goose that lays golden eggs," concerns about the mass production of space debris have also emerged.

◆ What Are Small Satellite Constellations?

Small satellites weighing less than 500 kg operate in constellations to perform the same mission. In the case of Starlink, it is a representative example because tens of thousands of small satellites are launched for the same purpose of providing satellite internet service. Musk started the Starlink project in 2014 with the vision of creating a world where anyone can use the internet anytime and anywhere. Since 2019, using the Falcon 9 rocket developed in-house, about 2,000 small Starlink satellites have been launched into orbits at altitudes of 500 to 600 km. The U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has already granted permission to launch 12,000 satellites, and applications have been submitted to launch an additional 40,000.

Amazon has also established a satellite internet company called Kuiper and plans to launch a total of 3,236 communication satellites starting this year. UK-based OneWeb, in which Hanwha has invested $300 million, will launch hundreds of satellites within this year to start internet network services. Besides satellite internet, companies like Planet Labs and ICEYE are increasing in number by directly launching small Earth observation satellites in constellations to provide services.

Small satellite constellations have become the trend due to the growing need for ultra-high-speed communication networks, the advancement of cutting-edge ICT technologies, and the dramatic reduction in satellite manufacturing and launch costs. Humanity has now entered the era of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, which requires ultra-high-speed communication networks more than ever. For autonomous vehicles, the Internet of Things (IoT), and cargo transport and traffic services using unmanned drones, establishing accurate and fast communication networks via satellites is essential. Additionally, improvements in computer, display, and semiconductor technologies have reduced satellite manufacturing costs and enhanced performance, enabling faster information processing.

Launch costs have also decreased thanks to reusable rockets and other innovations. According to the Korea Aerospace Research Institute (KARI), the current launch cost per kilogram of small satellites has dropped to a minimum of $7,500 and averages around $20,000. The biggest advantage of small satellites is that they can be produced and deployed quickly at a low cost. However, their lifespan is short?typically about one year, with a maximum of two years. There are also performance limitations. Current small satellites can only achieve a resolution of about 3 meters, making high-precision imaging impossible. To provide sub-meter high-resolution satellite images, large satellites weighing over 3 tons are essential. This is similar to how, despite the release of many high-definition smartphones, there remains a demand for high-performance cameras.

Nonetheless, the small satellite market is rapidly growing. Euroconsult's small satellite market report from April last year projected that 13,912 new small satellites (under 500 kg) will be launched between 2021 and 2030, with the total market size reaching $3.7 billion. It predicted that over the decade from 2020 to 2029, the number of small communication satellites launched will increase 28-fold (from 205 to 5,687), and small observation satellites will more than triple from 576 to 1,521 during the same period.

Senior Researcher Lim Chang-ho of KARI said, "As small satellite technology advances, countries, institutions, and companies wishing to utilize satellites have more options, and in the long term, small satellites may take the place of medium and large satellites. Since there is clearly demand for ultra-high performance, the optimal combination?balancing cost-effectiveness?should be used according to the purpose, appropriately utilizing medium, large, and small satellites."

◆ South Korea Also Developing ‘Doyosat’ Satellites

Efforts to utilize small satellite constellation technology are active in South Korea as well. A representative example is the Doyosat (SNIPE) satellite developed by the Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, scheduled for launch this year. The Doyosat satellites will be launched into a polar orbit at an altitude of 500 km with an orbital inclination of 97.7 degrees. Comprising four satellites named Garam, Narae, Dasol, and Raon, they will perform tandem and cross formations. By adjusting the distances between each other, they will observe and analyze various space weather phenomena. Tandem formation allows observation of temporal changes, while cross formation enables monitoring of wide areas. This overcomes the limitations of observation by a single large satellite, allowing sensitive detection of changes. The Astronomy Institute explained, "By observing the spatiotemporal variations of space plasma distribution at a fine level, we can improve the accuracy of space weather forecasting and analysis, such as predicting space storms caused by solar wind." They added, "Accurate observation of space weather can help prepare for satellite communication disruptions and power grid damage." Doyosat will operate for one and a half years, including joint research with NASA. However, the launch schedule remains uncertain due to the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war.

The Ministry of Science and ICT has also been developing 11 micro-satellites in constellations since 2020 for national security and disaster response. The Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST) Satellite Research Center is collaborating with the private satellite company Satrec Initiative to produce the system, bus, and payload. There is also the Korean Positioning System (KPS) project, which plans to launch eight satellites by the 2030s with an investment of about 3.7 trillion won. Additionally, the military is promoting the 4.25 project, a micro-precision reconnaissance and surveillance satellite constellation system.

◆ Saturation of Earth Orbit, a Headache

The problem is that if everyone launches satellites without proper measures, it is likely to become a "headache." "Light pollution" is already an issue. Over 2,000 Starlink satellites are orbiting Earth, making celestial observation and monitoring through ground telescopes difficult. In fact, analysis of photos taken by the Palomar Observatory in California between November 2019 and September 2021 using the ZTF celestial observation equipment found 5,301 streaks caused by low Earth orbit satellite constellations in the night sky. If Starlink and others continue launching as planned, by the late 2020s, it will be impossible to take celestial observation photos without satellite streaks. In response, the International Astronomical Union (IAU) plans to establish a specialized organization in April to devise countermeasures. SpaceX has introduced measures such as painting Starlink satellites black or changing their structure to reduce light reflection, but these have reportedly caused issues like shortened satellite lifespans.

A rapid increase in space debris is also anticipated. If tens of thousands of small satellites, with lifespans of about two years at most, break down or reach end-of-life and drift at an incredible speed of 7 km/s, it is hard to imagine what Earth's orbit will look like. It is likely to become a "junkyard" as depicted in the movie "Space Sweepers." This is why private companies in Europe, Japan, and the U.S. are conducting space debris cleanup projects. Internationally, the United Nations (UN) Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) has established "Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines" and discusses traffic management in congested orbits through the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC). The IADC plans to hold a general meeting on the 6th in Jeju Island to discuss measures against the recent surge in space debris. A Ministry of Science and ICT official explained, "This is an organization where leading space development agencies from countries including Korea's KARI and the U.S. NASA participate to discuss technical measures for handling space debris and fragments. Korea joined as a member in 2014 and is actively participating."