Korea Research Lee·Yoon Tie at 38.9%
Southern Post Lee 40%, Yoon 40.4%
Embrain Republic Lee 40.2%, Yoon 42.4%
Yoon Slightly Ahead but Close Race Within Margin of Error
Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party presidential candidate (left), and Yoon Seok-youl, the People Power Party presidential candidate, are preparing for the debate at the first invited candidates' debate for the 20th presidential election, hosted by the National Election Commission, held on the afternoon of the 21st at the MBC Media Center Public Hall in Mapo-gu, Seoul. [Image source=Yonhap News]
[Asia Economy Reporter Yoon Seul-gi] As multiple polls released on the 27th show that Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party presidential candidate, and Yoon Seok-youl, the People Power Party candidate, are in a close race within the margin of error in multi-candidate hypothetical matchups, the presidential election landscape remains uncertain.
A poll conducted by Korea Research on behalf of KBS from the 24th to the 26th surveyed 2,000 adults nationwide aged 18 and over regarding their support for presidential candidates. The results showed that both Lee and Yoon each recorded 39.8%, resulting in a tie. Following them were Ahn Cheol-soo of the People’s Party at 8.2%, and Sim Sang-jung of the Justice Party at 3.1%.
Compared to the previous survey, Lee’s support increased by 5.8 percentage points, and Yoon’s by 2.1 percentage points. The same organization conducted a poll from the 7th to the 9th targeting 1,000 adults nationwide aged 18 and over, which was announced on the 10th (with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level). At that time, Lee recorded 34%, Yoon 37.7%, Ahn 8.2%, and Sim 3.1%.
The margin of error for this survey is ±2.2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. The survey was conducted via telephone interviews by interviewers using stratified random sampling within virtual phone numbers based on gender, age, and region. The response rate was 24.7%.
According to a poll by Southern Post commissioned by CBS on the 26th, which surveyed 1,021 adults nationwide aged 18 and over, Lee recorded 40%, and Yoon 40.4%, with a gap of 0.4 percentage points. Following them were Ahn at 8.1% and Sim at 2.7%.
Compared to the previous survey conducted on the 18th and 19th (Yoon 40.2%, Lee 31.4%), Yoon’s support rose by 0.2 percentage points, and Lee’s by 8.6 percentage points.
The survey was conducted entirely via telephone interviews using virtual mobile phone numbers. The response rate was 16.4%, and the margin of error was ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.
A poll conducted by Embrain Public on behalf of News1 over two days from the 25th to the 26th surveyed 1,014 adults nationwide aged 18 and over. Yoon Seok-youl led slightly with 42.4% compared to Lee Jae-myung’s 40.2%, but the race remained within the margin of error. Following them were Ahn at 9.0% and Sim at 2.8%.
Compared to the survey conducted on the 5th and 6th, Lee’s support increased by 4.5 percentage points (35.7% → 40.2%), and Yoon’s by 5.8 percentage points (36.6% → 42.4%).
This survey was conducted via mobile phone interviews (100% wireless). The margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, and the response rate was 22.6%. For more detailed information, please refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.
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