[Presidential Election D-1 Month Pledge Analysis④-Welfare·Education·Youth] Lee's Universal or Yoon's Selective, Ultimately 'Cash Handout Welfare'

Lee and Shim's Basic and Lifetime Income Pledges
Yoon Prioritizes Support for Vulnerable Groups
Ahn Abolishes Support Obligation Criteria

Youth Policies Also Similar
Promises of Cash and Housing Support
Education Focused Only on College Admission System

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunju Lee] Reviewing the welfare pledges of the presidential candidates from both ruling and opposition parties in the 20th presidential election, it is clear that while there is a difference between universal and selective support, 'cash assistance' is inevitable.

A representative example is Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party presidential candidate's basic income pledge. Candidate Lee announced a goal to provide 250,000 KRW annually to all citizens starting next year, totaling 1 million KRW by the end of his term. Sim Sang-jung, the Justice Party presidential candidate, also does not differ from Lee in terms of cash payments. Candidate Sim pledged to introduce a 'Citizen Lifetime Income' guaranteeing a minimum income of 1 million KRW to citizens earning below 100% of the median income. This effectively means about half of the citizens earning below 100% of the median income would receive it.

Yoon Seok-youl, the People Power Party presidential candidate, emphasized selective support. He stated that welfare support would be prioritized for vulnerable groups. The eligibility criteria for the National Basic Livelihood Security living allowance will be raised from 30% to 35% of the median income, and an additional 100,000 KRW will be provided if there are household members unable to work due to disability, labor, or children. He also plans to raise the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) income threshold by up to 20% and expand deductions for earned and business income by up to 50% when determining the allowance amount for basic livelihood security recipients.

Ahn Cheol-soo, the People’s Party presidential candidate, plans to strengthen the state's welfare responsibility by completely abolishing the support obligation criteria. The support obligation criteria have been cited as a factor creating blind spots in poverty. Even if one meets the selection criteria for basic livelihood security recipients, they cannot receive various benefits if they have supporting family members such as children with assets or income above a certain level. Payments are expected to start from 40% of the median income, with an estimated annual budget of about 3 to 5 trillion KRW.

Policies targeting the representative floating group, youth, are quite similar among all candidates. Candidate Lee announced that he would provide 1 million KRW annually to youth aged 19 to 29 and guarantee loans up to 10 million KRW at bank-level interest rates. The youth basic income target group is about 7 million people, requiring a budget of 7 trillion KRW annually if 1 million KRW is paid per person.

Candidate Yoon’s pledge is not much different. He promised to support low-income youth with 500,000 KRW per month for up to 8 months as a 'Youth Leap Guarantee Fund.' This amounts to about 4 million KRW per person annually. Since he did not specify the criteria for low-income youth, the required budget remains uncertain. Yoon also proposed introducing a 'Youth Leap Account,' where the state subsidizes up to 2.5 million KRW annually, but details on the budget size and funding methods were not provided. Candidate Sim announced that 30 million KRW would be paid uniformly at age 20 as a youth basic asset and that job-seeking benefits would be paid three times even if the individual voluntarily resigns.

There is little difference among candidates regarding real estate policies for youth. Candidate Lee promised mass supply of youth basic housing, Candidate Ahn pledged 500,000 youth safe housing units, and Candidate Sim promised youth public rental housing without deposits. However, Candidate Ahn proposed introducing a 45-year mortgage loan, supporting first-time homebuyers, long-term non-homeowners, and youth with an 80% loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, interest rates at the base rate level, and an initial mortgage loan with a 15-year grace period and 30-year repayment term.

Professor Sung Tae-yoon of Yonsei University’s Department of Economics said, "Candidate Yoon’s policies targeting vulnerable groups are meaningful," adding, "Universal welfare may not be effective nationwide, but it is feasible within the scope targeting youth." Professor Sung added, "It would be even better if the support is linked to practical human capital accumulation such as education and training rather than just giving money."

Education pledges have been fixated solely on the university entrance exam system. Candidate Lee promised to establish a University Admission Fairness Committee, maintain the 40% regular admission quota, and remove killer questions from the College Scholastic Ability Test (CSAT). Candidate Yoon made similar pledges, aiming to expand the regular admission ratio and simplify the entrance exam system. Additionally, Candidate Ahn pledged to abolish early admission entirely, proposing a 100% CSAT screening and a regular admission system reflecting 50% CSAT and 50% school records. The reason all candidates unanimously advocate expanding regular admissions is rooted in the 'distrust of early admission' caused by the admission corruption scandal involving former Minister of Justice Cho Kuk’s children. Professor Song Ki-chang of Sookmyung Women’s University’s Department of Education said, "Issues related to higher education funding, such as the increasing number of regional universities closing, are urgent but are not being addressed by presidential candidates," and analyzed, "Especially, the high school credit system to be implemented from 2025 may conflict with the candidates’ pledges to expand regular admissions."

However, Candidate Sim stated, "Resolving university hierarchy is the ultimate solution," and announced plans to enact the 'Education Finance Grant Act' to expand university education funding and foster 10 regional national universities at the level of Seoul National University. Along with this, he proposed ▲ pilot introduction of a 9-year school system linking elementary and middle schools ▲ strengthening vocational education in high schools ▲ reducing the number of students per classroom to below 20 ▲ enacting and introducing a law prohibiting discrimination based on academic achievement and educational background. An education sector official pointed out, "If candidates keep making pledges only to avoid losing votes under the frame of fairness in education, students may miss out on what they truly need to receive in education."