Yoon 43.4% > Lee 38.1% > Ahn 7.5% > Shim 2.5% [Realmeter]

Yoon Seok-yeol Slightly Exceeds Margin of Error with Lead
Yoon Up 3.2%p, Lee Down 0.4%p Compared to January 4th Week Survey
Ahn Cheol-soo Drops from 10.3% to 7.5%... Support Falls to Single Digits

[Asia Economy Reporter Oh Ju-yeon] A public opinion poll shows that Yoon Seok-yeol, the presidential candidate of the People Power Party, is narrowly leading Lee Jae-myung, the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party of Korea, outside the margin of error. Ahn Cheol-soo, the presidential candidate of the People’s Party, has seen his approval rating drop back to single digits after five weeks.

On the 7th, Realmeter, a polling agency, conducted a survey commissioned by OhmyNews from February 2 to 4 targeting 1,509 people nationwide aged 18 and over, and announced the results of the first week of February’s next presidential candidate approval ratings. Yoon’s approval rating rose by 3.2 percentage points from the fourth week of January to 43.4%, while Lee’s dropped by 0.4 percentage points to 38.1%. During the same period, the gap between the two candidates’ approval ratings widened from 3.6 percentage points to 5.3 percentage points, which is outside the margin of error (95% ±2.5 percentage points).

Following them were Ahn with 7.5% and Sim Sang-jung, the Justice Party presidential candidate, with 2.5%.

Ahn’s approval rating fell by 2.8 percentage points compared to the fourth week of January, dropping back to single digits after five weeks. During the same period, Sim’s rating rose by 0.1 percentage points. Other candidates accounted for 2.3%, and those undecided or with no opinion were 6.1%, showing a slight decrease in the floating voters.

Yoon’s approval rating increased in Daegu·Gyeongbuk (up 14.2 percentage points to 66.7%), Gwangju·Jeolla (up 6.4 percentage points to 23.2%), and Incheon·Gyeonggi (up 5.0 percentage points to 42.4%). By age group, it rose among those aged 70 and over (up 6.3 percentage points to 62.7%), those in their 30s (up 5.6 percentage points to 44.2%), those in their 20s (up 4.8 percentage points to 43.7%), and those in their 50s (up 3.9 percentage points to 38.3%).

Lee’s approval rating notably increased in the Chungcheong region (up 5.3 percentage points to 39.8%) and showed strong consolidation among those in their 40s (up 3.0 percentage points to 54.0%).

When asked about the likelihood of winning the next presidential election, Yoon received 49.0%, Lee 40.8%, Ahn 4.2%, and Sim 0.5%. While Yoon’s rating rose by 3.4 percentage points, Lee’s fell by 3.4 percentage points, widening the gap between the two candidates to 8.2 percentage points, which is outside the margin of error.

Regarding which candidate is most likely to fulfill their campaign promises, Lee led with 39.2%, followed by Yoon at 38.2%, Ahn at 10.6%, and Sim at 3.8%.

The margin of error for this survey is ±2.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For more details, please refer to the website of the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission.