From 3 Years Later, the Number of 'Workers' Will Decrease

2020-2030 Mid-to-Long-Term Workforce Supply and Demand Outlook
Economically Active Population Peaks in 2025 and Then Declines
Youth Workers Decrease Due to Aging and Low Birthrate

A warning has been issued that the economically active population aged 15 and over in South Korea will peak in 2025 and then decline. The working-age population, including the economically inactive, is also expected to see its growth rate sharply drop to less than half by 2030, with a significant decrease in jobs in the manufacturing sector, which has a large employment scale. The analysis suggests that the speed of job structure changes will accelerate due to delayed marriage and childbirth caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and intensified aging.

According to the "2020?2030 Mid- to Long-term Labor Supply and Demand Outlook" announced by the Ministry of Employment and Labor on the 3rd, the economically active population aged 15 and over is projected to peak at 29,117,000 in 2025 and then enter a downward trend. The timing of this decline has been moved up by one year compared to previous forecasts. Over the 10 years until 2030, the total economically active population is expected to increase by only 746,000, a significant reduction compared to the 3,056,000 increase from 2010 to 2020.

The economically active population aged 15 to 64 saw a decrease of 430,000 in 2020 due to the spread of COVID-19 but has since returned to a slight upward trend. However, with the working-age population shrinking, it is expected to peak next year and then decline. The faster decline compared to the economically active population aged 15 and over is interpreted as being due to a steeper reduction in young workers caused by aging.

The working-age population aged 15 and over, which includes both economically active and inactive populations, is expected to increase by 1,344,000 during this period but still shows a significant slowdown compared to the 3,940,000 increase from 2010 to 2020. The labor force participation rate is projected to peak at 63.5% in 2024, when the "Baby Boomer" generation born between 1955 and 1963 turns 65, and then decline to 62.3% by 2030.

Employment projections by industry show that the service sector will increase by 1,131,000 jobs, while manufacturing is expected to decrease by 2,000 jobs. A Ministry of Employment and Labor official stated, "Employment in manufacturing is expected to decline due to population decrease, trade disputes, and technological innovation."