North Korea, Possibility of ICBM Launch Following Medium-Range Ballistic Missile Test

[Asia Economy Reporter Yoo In-ho] There is an analysis that North Korea's launch of the Hwasong-12 intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) brings the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) closer.

North Korea's Korean Central News Agency reported on the 31st that the launch the previous day was a 'verification firing test' of the Hwasong-12 intermediate-range ballistic missile.

Verification firing is a test launch that randomly selects missiles from mass production for quality verification before actual deployment.

This is the first time North Korea has effectively confirmed the operational deployment of the Hwasong-12, which it declared operational in 2017 with a range covering bases in Guam and Alaska. This was a demonstration of its strike capability against the U.S.

So far, North Korea's weapons development pattern involved firing at a 'high-angle' (30~45 degrees or higher) to reduce range, and once accuracy was assured, conducting actual-range firing through inland trajectories.

Experts interpret North Korea's disclosure of the operational deployment at this point as having political intentions.

Shin Jong-woo, a senior research fellow at the Korea Defense & Security Forum (KODEF), analyzed, “The development of the Hwasong-12 for operational deployment was already completed in 2017,” and “This launch appears to be a show of force under the pretext of quality inspection.”

Diplomatic experts see an increased likelihood of North Korea conducting an ICBM launch. Since the beginning of the new year, North Korea has carried out seven missile provocations, returning to a hardline stance against the U.S.

In this context, there is speculation that North Korea may also launch ICBMs in a 'verification' format in the future.

A diplomatic expert said, “North Korea may conduct a show of force on political anniversaries such as February 16, Kim Jong-il's birthday (Kwangmyongsong Day), or April 15, Kim Il-sung's birthday (Day of the Sun),” adding, “They may also use the joint South Korea-U.S. military exercises expected to take place in March-April as a pretext for provocation.”