Turning Point of Presidential Election TV Debate... "Victory Decided More by Facial Expressions than Message"

"Confident Attitude Is Important, but Excessive Aggression Can Be Negative"
"Nonverbal Aspects Dominate Debates"
Lee Jae-myung's High Expectations Are Obstacles, Yoon Seok-yeol Faces Test of Competence

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] The Democratic Party and the People Power Party have agreed to hold a one-on-one debate between presidential candidates on the 31st, making it likely that the first debate between presidential candidates of this year's election will take place. After various twists and turns, this one-on-one debate is expected to feature a fierce showdown between Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party's presidential candidate, and Yoon Seok-youl, the People Power Party's presidential candidate, who have been competing for first and second place in various polls.

According to political circles and experts on the 29th, the outcome of this year's first presidential debate is expected to be decided more by 'nonverbal aspects' than by each other's logic or arguments. In presidential debates covering various topics, the winner may be determined not by specific debate logic or vision presentation, but by which candidate displays a more positive attitude.

Kim Bong-shin, CEO of Metavoice, said, "Since the presidential candidates are in a very sharp state, the public will now also look at their attitude and posture in listening to their debate opponent." He added, "If they show a confident image in terms of posture and attitude, it will be positive, but if they become excessively aggressive, they may be disliked." Kim said, "The key is how well they present their image between being confident and assertive or being overly sharp and aggressive."

Professor Shin Yul of Myongji University’s Department of Political Science and Diplomacy also said, "Nonverbal aspects will ultimately dominate the debate."

Due to the nature of the video medium, a candidate's facial expressions and attitude have more influence than the candidate's message itself.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

There is also an analysis that the test papers faced by the two candidates are different. Lee is highly rated for his debate skills and thus has high expectations. Conversely, although Yoon has honed his skills through People Power Party presidential debates, he is still considered a political newcomer and has been evaluated as prone to verbal slips, resulting in low expectations for his debate performance. For Lee, merely showcasing eloquence is unlikely to have an effect beyond rallying his existing supporters. He needs a 'knockout blow' to turn the debate around. On the other hand, Yoon can meet expectations simply by performing well.

Kim Bong-shin said, "Since expectations for Lee are high, those expectations act as a baseline, and if he performs below them, there may be disappointment. For Yoon, expectations are low, so if he does even a little well, he will be seen as having performed adequately." He added, "They will not be compared equally but evaluated by their own standards."

Professor Park Sang-byeong of Inha University Graduate School of Policy said, "This debate will be a time to evaluate Yoon's policy capabilities," and predicted, "The key will be whether Yoon can erase his past gaffes or misstatements and demonstrate policy competence, or whether he will show subpar behavior."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

More fundamentally, it remains to be seen how much this presidential debate will actually influence public opinion formation. Initially, the presidential candidate debate was planned to be a one-on-one TV debate broadcast by the three major terrestrial broadcasters during prime time between 7 and 9 p.m. during the Lunar New Year holiday. However, after the court accepted injunction requests from the People’s Party and the Justice Party to ban the broadcast, it seemed to shift toward a multi-candidate debate. Now, the three major terrestrial broadcasters have given up on broadcasting, and the Lunar New Year presidential debate will proceed without them. There is talk of possible rebroadcasts on video channels such as YouTube and comprehensive programming channels. Naturally, the impact will be less than that of the three major terrestrial broadcasters’ coverage.

Professor Shin Yul said, "Presidential candidate TV debates can provide interest, but they will likely reinforce confirmation bias by increasing support for existing candidates."