2022 Presidential Election Outlook... And Seoul City District Public Officials' Concerns?

With 39 Days Left and Uncertain Predictions, Presidential Election Results Expected to Impact June 1 Local Elections for the 8th Term, Drawing Increased Interest Among Seoul District Officials Due to Conflicting Interests

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Jong-il] On the 29th, the start of the Lunar New Year holiday, the presidential election (March 9) is 39 days away.

This Lunar New Year holiday is expected to be a decisive moment that will determine the candidates' support rates, despite the difficulty of visiting hometowns amid the Omicron surge.

In particular, a joint TV debate among the four presidential candidates is scheduled for February 3, drawing national attention.

So far, some polls show a significant gap between the first and second place candidates, while others show a close race, increasing public interest in the election.

◆ MBC Poll Results... Yoon Seok-yeol 41.1%, Lee Jae-myung 32.9%, Ahn Cheol-soo 10.5%, Shim Sang-jung 3.1%

Ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, MBC commissioned Korea Research to conduct a poll on January 26-27. In a four-way hypothetical contest, Yoon Seok-yeol of the People Power Party received 41.1%, and Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party received 32.9%, with Yoon leading Lee beyond the margin of error.

When asked who they would vote for if the presidential election were a four-way contest among Lee Jae-myung, Yoon Seok-yeol, Shim Sang-jung, and Ahn Cheol-soo, the results were: Yoon Seok-yeol (People Power Party) 41.1%, Lee Jae-myung (Democratic Party) 32.9%, Ahn Cheol-soo (People's Party) 10.5%, Shim Sang-jung (Justice Party) 3.1%. Yoon led Lee by 8.2 percentage points. Two weeks prior, the gap was within the margin of error at 6 percentage points, but this poll shows a slightly wider gap beyond the margin of error.

Commissioned by: MBC

Polling agency: Korea Research International Co., Ltd.

Survey target: 1,002 men and women aged 18 and over nationwide

Survey period: January 26-27, 2022 (2 days)

Survey method: 100% mobile phone virtual numbers provided by three domestic telecom companies, wireless telephone interviews

Respondent selection method: Quota sampling by gender/age/region

Response rate: 17% (5,910 calls, 1,002 responses)

Weighting method: Weighted by gender/age/region (cell weighting, based on December 2021 Ministry of the Interior and Safety resident registration population statistics)

Sampling error: ±3.1 percentage points at 95% confidence level

Question details: Refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website

◆ Gallup Korea, Lee Jae-myung 35%, Yoon Seok-yeol 35%, Ahn Cheol-soo 15%, Shim Sang-jung 4%

However, Gallup Korea's poll results showing a neck-and-neck race have also attracted attention.

On the 28th, a poll showed that Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party and Yoon Seok-yeol of the People Power Party each received 35% support.

Gallup Korea surveyed 1,000 people nationwide from January 25-27 (sampling error ±3.1 percentage points at 95% confidence level). Lee and Yoon each received 35% support. Ahn Cheol-soo of the People's Party received 15%, and Shim Sang-jung of the Justice Party received 4% support.

Looking at the trends over the past three weeks conducted by this agency, Lee's support changed from 37% → 34% → 35%, and Yoon's support changed from 31% → 33% → 35%. Ahn's support changed from 17% → 17% → 15% over the past three weeks.

This survey was conducted by telephone interviewers using random digit dialing (RDD) with 90% mobile and 10% landline calls. The response rate was 15.1%. For detailed information, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

These two polls show significantly different support rates between the first and second place candidates in the presidential election.

Accordingly, attention is focused on "Which candidate will ultimately win the presidential election?" Since the election result cannot be known precisely until the votes are counted, it is the highest concern not only for candidates and party members but also for the public.

◆ Reasons for the opposition candidate Yoon Seok-yeol's victory forecast?

The forecast that Yoon Seok-yeol, the candidate of the main opposition People Power Party, will win is primarily based on the belief that real estate issues will decisively influence this election as well.

Despite 25 real estate measures under the Moon Jae-in administration, soaring housing prices and official land prices in Seoul, the metropolitan area, and Sejong, along with skyrocketing comprehensive real estate taxes, have greatly increased the tax burden even for those owning a single home, making it difficult for the ruling party to win the election.

A Seoul city official said, "This presidential election will inevitably be decisively influenced by real estate issues, similar to the LH employees' real estate speculation during last year's April 7 Seoul mayoral by-election. Homeowners face tax burdens, and those without homes feel relative deprivation, making the ruling party absolutely disadvantaged. This public sentiment is reflected in the poll results." He added, "As COVID-19 has prolonged for over two years, small business owners have suffered fatal blows, and support for regime change exceeds 50% in various polls."

Another expert said, "With the tax burden increasing due to the real estate price surge and all living costs rising significantly, reducing disposable income, it is obvious what choice the public will make."

◆ Reasons for the ruling party candidate Lee Jae-myung's victory forecast?

Among Democratic Party supporters, there is a forecast that Lee Jae-myung could win by a narrow margin because Ahn Cheol-soo is receiving 10-15% support in various polls.

A Seoul local government head said, "Lee Jae-myung will not lose easily. However, if a unification between Yoon Seok-yeol and Ahn Cheol-soo is achieved, it will be difficult for Lee to win," acknowledging this possibility.

However, it is predicted that unification will not be easy. There is a hopeful expectation that Ahn will not unify before the next presidential election.

◆ Public officials losing sleep over election predictions also draw attention

The election results affect not only candidates and political parties but also public officials whose interests are intertwined. Such sentiments are detected among senior public officials in autonomous districts.

A Seoul district director said, "The presidential election results are expected to have a decisive impact on the June 1 local elections for the 8th term of direct elections, so honestly, I have been losing sleep lately." This comment suggests that if a candidate from a different party than the current one wins decisively in the presidential election, and the local government head from that party is elected, promotion to grade 4 could be jeopardized.

This concern was not limited to this director. Another district team leader expressed similar worries, saying, "My promotion to section chief is imminent, but if the presidential election results are unfavorable, it could be significantly delayed."

From these two officials' remarks, one can feel that "elections ultimately relate to one's own interests."

Especially, Seoul's local elections have seen the Democratic Party win overwhelmingly in the 5th, 6th, and 7th terms, so there is anxiety that winning the 8th term election will not be easy.

Elections are a way for each citizen to express their will according to their interests. Recently, a political commentator on a radio show said, "When dividing the national budget (estimated at 600 trillion won annually, totaling 30,000 trillion won over five years) by the number of voters, one vote is worth hundreds of millions of won." At first, this was hard to understand, but it was later recognized as a correct and insightful remark.

The phrase "elections are the flower of democracy" carries the weight of public judgment.

The solemn responsibility of voters is deeply felt.